# Assessing Uncertainty Estimation Methods for 3D Image Segmentation under Distribution Shifts

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.06937 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.06937/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 14 of its 27 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 10 Feb 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 14 of 14)

- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [A Simple Baseline for Bayesian Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.02476/) (2019)
- [Bayesian Deep Learning and a Probabilistic Perspective of Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.08791/) (2020)
- [A large annotated medical image dataset for the development and evaluation of segmentation algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.09063/) (2019)
- [Hands-on Bayesian Neural Networks -- a Tutorial for Deep Learning Users](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.06823/) (2020)
- [Cyclical Stochastic Gradient MCMC for Bayesian Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.03932/) (2019)
- [The state of the art in kidney and kidney tumor segmentation in contrast-enhanced CT imaging: Results of the KiTS19 Challenge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01054/) (2019)
- [Assessing Reliability and Challenges of Uncertainty Estimations for Medical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.03338/) (2019)
- [Benchmarking Bayesian Deep Learning on Diabetic Retinopathy Detection Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.12717/) (2022)
- [Calibrated ensembles can mitigate accuracy tradeoffs under distribution shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.08977/) (2022)
- [Reliable and Trustworthy Machine Learning for Health Using Dataset Shift Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14019/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Calib3D: Calibrating Model Preferences for Reliable 3D Scene Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.17010/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

In recent years, machine learning has witnessed extensive adoption across various sectors, yet its application in medical image-based disease detection and diagnosis remains challenging due to distribution shifts in real-world data. In practical settings, deployed models encounter samples that differ significantly from the training dataset, especially in the health domain, leading to potential performance issues. This limitation hinders the expressiveness and reliability of deep learning models in health applications. Thus, it becomes crucial to identify methods capable of producing reliable uncertainty estimation in the context of distribution shifts in the health sector. In this paper, we explore the feasibility of using cutting-edge Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods to detect distributionally shifted samples, aiming to achieve reliable and trustworthy diagnostic predictions in segmentation task. Specifically, we compare three distinct uncertainty estimation methods, each designed to capture either unimodal or multimodal aspects in the posterior distribution. Our findings demonstrate that methods capable of addressing multimodal characteristics in the posterior distribution, offer more dependable uncertainty estimates. This research contributes to enhancing the utility of deep learning in healthcare, making diagnostic predictions more robust and trustworthy.