# From GARCH to Neural Network for Volatility Forecast

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.06642 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.06642/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 10 of its 32 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Jan 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [Modeling Long- and Short-Term Temporal Patterns with Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.07015/) (2017)
- [N-BEATS: Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.10437/) (2019)
- [A Survey on Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI): Towards Medical XAI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.07374/) (2019)
- [Think Globally, Act Locally: A Deep Neural Network Approach to High-Dimensional Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.03806/) (2019)
- [Do We Really Need Deep Learning Models for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.02118/) (2021)
- [Multi-Transformer: A New Neural Network-Based Architecture for Forecasting S&P Volatility](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.12621/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [A Hybrid Quantum Circuit Born Machine Framework for Financial Volatility Forecasting: Quantum-Assisted Training and Classical Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.09789/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Volatility, as a measure of uncertainty, plays a crucial role in numerous financial activities such as risk management. The Econometrics and Machine Learning communities have developed two distinct approaches for financial volatility forecasting: the stochastic approach and the neural network (NN) approach. Despite their individual strengths, these methodologies have conventionally evolved in separate research trajectories with little interaction between them. This study endeavors to bridge this gap by establishing an equivalence relationship between models of the GARCH family and their corresponding NN counterparts. With the equivalence relationship established, we introduce an innovative approach, named GARCH-NN, for constructing NN-based volatility models. It obtains the NN counterparts of GARCH models and integrates them as components into an established NN architecture, thereby seamlessly infusing volatility stylized facts (SFs) inherent in the GARCH models into the neural network. We develop the GARCH-LSTM model to showcase the power of the GARCH-NN approach. Experiment results validate that amalgamating the NN counterparts of the GARCH family models into established NN models leads to enhanced outcomes compared to employing the stochastic and NN models in isolation.