# Mesoscale Traffic Forecasting for Real-Time Bottleneck and Shockwave Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.05663 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.05663/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 10 of its 28 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Feb 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Decoupled Weight Decay Regularization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.05101/) (2017)
- [Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machine Learning Approach for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.04214/) (2015)
- [T-GCN: A Temporal Graph ConvolutionalNetwork for Traffic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.05320/) (2018)
- [Graph Neural Network for Traffic Forecasting: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.11174/) (2021)
- [Deep Generative Image Models using a Laplacian Pyramid of Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.05751/) (2015)
- [ETA Prediction with Graph Neural Networks in Google Maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.11482/) (2021)
- [Deep Transformer Models for Time Series Forecasting: The Influenza Prevalence Case](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08317/) (2020)
- [Dissipation of stop-and-go waves via control of autonomous vehicles: Field experiments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.01693/) (2017)
- [Deep-Ensemble-Based Uncertainty Quantification in Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.01618/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate real-time traffic state forecasting plays a pivotal role in traffic control research. In particular, the CIRCLES consortium project necessitates predictive techniques to mitigate the impact of data source delays. After the success of the MegaVanderTest experiment, this paper aims at overcoming the current system limitations and develop a more suited approach to improve the real-time traffic state estimation for the next iterations of the experiment. In this paper, we introduce the SA-LSTM, a deep forecasting method integrating Self-Attention (SA) on the spatial dimension with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) yielding state-of-the-art results in real-time mesoscale traffic forecasting. We extend this approach to multi-step forecasting with the n-step SA-LSTM, which outperforms traditional multi-step forecasting methods in the trade-off between short-term and long-term predictions, all while operating in real-time.