# Discovering and Reasoning of Causality in the Hidden World with Large Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.03941 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03941/

## Key facts

- Cited by 10 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Causal reasoning in LLMs, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 21 of its 139 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 6 Feb 2024.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Causal reasoning in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/lr/causal-reasoning-in-llms/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 21 of 21)

- [LLaMA: Open and Efficient Foundation Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13971/) (2023)
- [Toolformer: Language Models Can Teach Themselves to Use Tools](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.04761/) (2023)
- [Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.12712/) (2023)
- [Mixtral of Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.04088/) (2024)
- [The Rise and Potential of Large Language Model Based Agents: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.07864/) (2023)
- [Siren's Song in the AI Ocean: A Survey on Hallucination in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.01219/) (2023)
- [The Reversal Curse: LLMs trained on "A is B" fail to learn "B is A"](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.12288/) (2023)
- [Causal Reasoning and Large Language Models: Opening a New Frontier for Causality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.00050/) (2023)
- [Towards Causal Representation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.11107/) (2021)
- [Can Large Language Models Infer Causation from Correlation?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05836/) (2023)
- [Holistic Analysis of Hallucination in GPT-4V(ision): Bias and Interference Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.03287/) (2023)
- [Causal Discovery with Language Models as Imperfect Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.02390/) (2023)
- [LMPriors: Pre-Trained Language Models as Task-Specific Priors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.12530/) (2022)
- [Integrating Large Language Model for Improved Causal Discovery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.16902/) (2023)
- [Understanding Causality with Large Language Models: Feasibility and Opportunities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.05524/) (2023)
- [Causal Order: The Key to Leveraging Imperfect Experts in Causal Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.15117/) (2023)
- [Pareto Invariant Risk Minimization: Towards Mitigating the Optimization Dilemma in Out-of-Distribution Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.07766/) (2022)
- [A Versatile Causal Discovery Framework to Allow Causally-Related Hidden Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.11001/) (2023)
- [Causal Inference of Script Knowledge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.01174/) (2020)
- [Everything Has a Cause: Leveraging Causal Inference in Legal Text Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.09420/) (2021)
- [Predicting Directionality in Causal Relations in Text](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.13606/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [ALCM: Autonomous LLM-Augmented Causal Discovery Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.01744/) (2024)
- [Large Language Models for Causal Discovery: Current Landscape and Future Directions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.11068/) (2024)
- [Causality for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.15319/) (2024)
- [The Landscape of Causal Discovery Data: Grounding Causal Discovery in Real-World Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.01953/) (2024)
- [Large language models for artificial general intelligence (AGI): A survey of foundational principles and approaches](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.03151/) (2025)
- [HIGHT: Hierarchical Graph Tokenization for Molecule-Language Alignment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.14021/) (2024)
- [Cloud Atlas: Efficient Fault Localization for Cloud Systems using Language Models and Causal Insight](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.08694/) (2024)
- [Can Large Language Models Help Experimental Design for Causal Discovery?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.01139/) (2025)
- [A Survey on Enhancing Causal Reasoning Ability of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.09326/) (2025)
- [CausalEvolve: Towards Open-Ended Discovery with Causal Scratchpad](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.14575/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Revealing hidden causal variables alongside the underlying causal mechanisms is essential to the development of science. Despite the progress in the past decades, existing practice in causal discovery (CD) heavily relies on high-quality measured variables, which are usually given by human experts. In fact, the lack of well-defined high-level variables behind unstructured data has been a longstanding roadblock to a broader real-world application of CD. This procedure can naturally benefit from an automated process that can suggest potential hidden variables in the system. Interestingly, Large language models (LLMs) are trained on massive observations of the world and have demonstrated great capability in processing unstructured data. To leverage the power of LLMs, we develop a new framework termed Causal representatiOn AssistanT (COAT) that incorporates the rich world knowledge of LLMs to propose useful measured variables for CD with respect to high-value target variables on their paired unstructured data. Instead of directly inferring causality with LLMs, COAT constructs feedback from intermediate CD results to LLMs to refine the proposed variables. Given the target variable and the paired unstructured data, we first develop COAT-MB that leverages the predictivity of the proposed variables to iteratively uncover the Markov Blanket of the target variable. Built upon COAT-MB, COAT-PAG further extends to uncover a more complete causal graph, i.e., Partial Ancestral Graph, by iterating over the target variables and actively seeking new high-level variables. Moreover, the reliable CD capabilities of COAT also extend the debiased causal inference to unstructured data by discovering an adjustment set. We establish theoretical guarantees for the CD results and verify their efficiency and reliability across realistic benchmarks and real-world case studies.