# Natural Counterfactuals With Necessary Backtracking

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.01607 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.01607/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 7 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 22 of its 43 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 Feb 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 22 of 22)

- [Convex optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.01946/) (2021)
- [Counterfactual Explanations without Opening the Black Box: Automated Decisions and the GDPR](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.00399/) (2017)
- [Explaining Machine Learning Classifiers through Diverse Counterfactual Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.07697/) (2019)
- [Explanations based on the Missing: Towards Contrastive Explanations with Pertinent Negatives](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.07623/) (2018)
- [Algorithmic Recourse: from Counterfactual Explanations to Interventions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.06278/) (2020)
- [FACE: Feasible and Actionable Counterfactual Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.09369/) (2019)
- [Deep Structural Causal Models for Tractable Counterfactual Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.06485/) (2020)
- [CausalGAN: Learning Causal Implicit Generative Models with Adversarial Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.02023/) (2017)
- [Towards Realistic Individual Recourse and Actionable Explanations in Black-Box Decision Making Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.09615/) (2019)
- [The Hidden Assumptions Behind Counterfactual Explanations and Principal Reasons](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.04930/) (2019)
- [Counterfactual Off-Policy Evaluation with Gumbel-Max Structural Causal Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.05824/) (2019)
- [BIVA: A Very Deep Hierarchy of Latent Variables for Generative Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.02102/) (2019)
- [Diffusion Causal Models for Counterfactual Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.10166/) (2022)
- [Sample-Efficient Reinforcement Learning via Counterfactual-Based Data Augmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.09092/) (2020)
- [Morpho-MNIST: Quantitative Assessment and Diagnostics for Representation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.10780/) (2018)
- [Evaluating and Mitigating Bias in Image Classifiers: A Causal Perspective Using Counterfactuals](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.08270/) (2020)
- [High Fidelity Image Counterfactuals with Probabilistic Causal Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.15764/) (2023)
- [Generating Interpretable Counterfactual Explanations By Implicit Minimisation of Epistemic and Aleatoric Uncertainties](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.08951/) (2021)
- [Measuring axiomatic soundness of counterfactual image models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.01274/) (2023)
- [Convex Density Constraints for Computing Plausible Counterfactual Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.04862/) (2020)
- [Self-Interpretable Time Series Prediction with Counterfactual Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.06024/) (2023)
- [Backtracking Counterfactuals](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.00472/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Counterfactual reasoning is pivotal in human cognition and especially important for providing explanations and making decisions. While Judea Pearl's influential approach is theoretically elegant, its generation of a counterfactual scenario often requires too much deviation from the observed scenarios to be feasible, as we show using simple examples. To mitigate this difficulty, we propose a framework of natural counterfactuals and a method for generating counterfactuals that are more feasible with respect to the actual data distribution. Our methodology incorporates a certain amount of backtracking when needed, allowing changes in causally preceding variables to minimize deviations from realistic scenarios. Specifically, we introduce a novel optimization framework that permits but also controls the extent of backtracking with a naturalness criterion. Empirical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. The code is available at https://github.com/GuangyuanHao/naturalcounterfactuals.