# Leveraging Gradients for Unsupervised Accuracy Estimation under Distribution Shift

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.08909 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.08909/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 50 of its 64 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 17 Jan 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 50)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [SGDR: Stochastic Gradient Descent with Warm Restarts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.03983/) (2016)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning for Fast Adaptation of Deep Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.03400/) (2017)
- [Wide Residual Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1605.07146/) (2016)
- [Benchmarking Neural Network Robustness to Common Corruptions and Perturbations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.12261/) (2019)
- [A Baseline for Detecting Misclassified and Out-of-Distribution Examples in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02136/) (2016)
- [FixMatch: Simplifying Semi-Supervised Learning with Consistency and Confidence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.07685/) (2020)
- [ImageNet-trained CNNs are biased towards texture; increasing shape bias improves accuracy and robustness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.12231/) (2018)
- [WILDS: A Benchmark of in-the-Wild Distribution Shifts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07421/) (2020)
- [Enhancing The Reliability of Out-of-distribution Image Detection in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02690/) (2017)
- [Energy-based Out-of-distribution Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.03759/) (2020)
- [Deep Hashing Network for Unsupervised Domain Adaptation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.07522/) (2017)
- [When Does Label Smoothing Help?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02629/) (2019)
- [Deep Anomaly Detection with Outlier Exposure](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.04606/) (2018)
- [Generalized Out-of-Distribution Detection: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.11334/) (2021)
- [Do Vision Transformers See Like Convolutional Neural Networks?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.08810/) (2021)
- [Exploring Generalization in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.08947/) (2017)
- [Train faster, generalize better: Stability of stochastic gradient descent](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1509.01240/) (2015)
- [Revisiting the Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.07998/) (2021)
- [Measuring Catastrophic Forgetting in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1708.02072/) (2017)
- [On the Importance of Gradients for Detecting Distributional Shifts in the Wild](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.00218/) (2021)
- [Gradient Matching for Domain Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.09937/) (2021)
- [BREEDS: Benchmarks for Subpopulation Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.04859/) (2020)
- [Leveraging Unlabeled Data to Predict Out-of-Distribution Performance](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.04234/) (2022)
- [Penalizing Gradient Norm for Efficiently Improving Generalization in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.03599/) (2022)
- [Information-Theoretic Generalization Bounds for SGLD via Data-Dependent Estimates](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.02151/) (2019)
- [Assessing Generalization of SGD via Disagreement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13799/) (2021)
- [Predicting with Confidence on Unseen Distributions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03315/) (2021)
- [Predicting the Generalization Gap in Deep Networks with Margin Distributions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.00113/) (2018)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Layer by layer, module by module: Choose both for optimal OOD probing of ViT](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.05280/) (2026)
- [Source-Free Domain-Invariant Performance Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.02209/) (2024)
- [TopoGeoScore: A Self-Supervised Source-Only Geometric Framework for OOD Checkpoint Selection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.08870/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Estimating the test performance of a model, possibly under distribution shift, without having access to the ground-truth labels is a challenging, yet very important problem for the safe deployment of machine learning algorithms in the wild. Existing works mostly rely on information from either the outputs or the extracted features of neural networks to estimate a score that correlates with the ground-truth test accuracy. In this paper, we investigate -- both empirically and theoretically -- how the information provided by the gradients can be predictive of the ground-truth test accuracy even under distribution shifts. More specifically, we use the norm of classification-layer gradients, backpropagated from the cross-entropy loss after only one gradient step over test data. Our intuition is that these gradients should be of higher magnitude when the model generalizes poorly. We provide the theoretical insights behind our approach and the key ingredients that ensure its empirical success. Extensive experiments conducted with various architectures on diverse distribution shifts demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms current state-of-the-art approaches. The code is available at https://github.com/Renchunzi-Xie/GdScore