# Investigating Fouling Efficiency in Football Using Expected Booking (xB) Model

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.08718 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.08718/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 1 of its 4 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 16 Jan 2024.

## Builds on (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Actions Speak Louder Than Goals: Valuing Player Actions in Soccer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.07127/) (2018)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This paper introduces the Expected Booking (xB) model, a novel metric designed to estimate the likelihood of a foul resulting in a yellow card in football. Through three iterative experiments, employing ensemble methods, the model demonstrates improved performance with additional features and an expanded dataset. Analysis of FIFA World Cup 2022 data validates the model's efficacy in providing insights into team and player fouling tactics, aligning with actual defensive performance. The xB model addresses a gap in fouling efficiency examination, emphasizing defensive strategies which often overlooked. Further enhancements are suggested through the incorporation of comprehensive data and spatial features.