# ALMANACS: A Simulatability Benchmark for Language Model Explainability

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.12747 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.12747/

## Key facts

- Cited by 11 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 61 of its 80 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 20 Dec 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 61)

- [Sentence-BERT: Sentence Embeddings using Siamese BERT-Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.10084/) (2019)
- [Grad-CAM: Visual Explanations from Deep Networks via Gradient-based Localization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02391/) (2016)
- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- ["Why Should I Trust You?": Explaining the Predictions of Any Classifier](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.04938/) (2016)
- [GLUE: A Multi-Task Benchmark and Analysis Platform for Natural Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.07461/) (2018)
- [Large Language Models are Zero-Shot Reasoners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.11916/) (2022)
- [Axiomatic Attribution for Deep Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.01365/) (2017)
- [BoolQ: Exploring the Surprising Difficulty of Natural Yes/No Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.10044/) (2019)
- [SimCSE: Simple Contrastive Learning of Sentence Embeddings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.08821/) (2021)
- [SuperGLUE: A Stickier Benchmark for General-Purpose Language Understanding Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.00537/) (2019)
- [Learning Important Features Through Propagating Activation Differences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.02685/) (2017)
- [Towards A Rigorous Science of Interpretable Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.08608/) (2017)
- [Interpretability in the Wild: a Circuit for Indirect Object Identification in GPT-2 small](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.00593/) (2022)
- [ChatGPT Outperforms Crowd-Workers for Text-Annotation Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.15056/) (2023)
- [Progress measures for grokking via mechanistic interpretability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.05217/) (2023)
- [Discovering Language Model Behaviors with Model-Written Evaluations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.09251/) (2022)
- [The RefinedWeb Dataset for Falcon LLM: Outperforming Curated Corpora with Web Data, and Web Data Only](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.01116/) (2023)
- [Distilling Step-by-Step! Outperforming Larger Language Models with Less Training Data and Smaller Model Sizes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.02301/) (2023)
- [Aligning AI With Shared Human Values](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.02275/) (2020)
- [Attention is not not Explanation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.04626/) (2019)
- [Towards Faithfully Interpretable NLP Systems: How should we define and evaluate faithfulness?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.03685/) (2020)
- [Towards Robust Interpretability with Self-Explaining Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.07538/) (2018)
- [A Benchmark for Interpretability Methods in Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.10758/) (2018)
- [e-SNLI: Natural Language Inference with Natural Language Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.01193/) (2018)
- [Learning the Difference that Makes a Difference with Counterfactually-Augmented Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.12434/) (2019)
- [Is Attention Interpretable?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.03731/) (2019)
- [dm_control: Software and Tasks for Continuous Control](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.12983/) (2020)
- [Studying Large Language Model Generalization with Influence Functions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.03296/) (2023)
- [Counterfactual Visual Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.07451/) (2019)
- [From Anecdotal Evidence to Quantitative Evaluation Methods: A Systematic Review on Evaluating Explainable AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.08164/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [RAVEL: Evaluating Interpretability Methods on Disentangling Language Model Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.17700/) (2024)
- [Are DeepSeek R1 And Other Reasoning Models More Faithful?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.08156/) (2025)
- [Thought Crime: Backdoors and Emergent Misalignment in Reasoning Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.13206/) (2025)
- [MIB: A Mechanistic Interpretability Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.13151/) (2025)
- [Bias-Augmented Consistency Training Reduces Biased Reasoning in Chain-of-Thought](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.05518/) (2024)
- [Hypothesis Testing the Circuit Hypothesis in LLMs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.13032/) (2024)
- [Interpretable LLM-based Table Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.12386/) (2024)
- [Poser: Unmasking Alignment Faking LLMs by Manipulating Their Internals](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.05466/) (2024)
- [ConSim: Measuring Concept-Based Explanations' Effectiveness with Automated Simulatability](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.05855/) (2025)
- [Evaluating RL Explainability Methods by How Much They Help Fix Bugs in Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.17524/) (2026)
- [Limitations of Automated Simulatability: LLM Simulators Can Bypass Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.08585/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

How do we measure the efficacy of language model explainability methods? While many explainability methods have been developed, they are typically evaluated on bespoke tasks, preventing an apples-to-apples comparison. To help fill this gap, we present ALMANACS, a language model explainability benchmark. ALMANACS scores explainability methods on simulatability, i.e., how well the explanations improve behavior prediction on new inputs. The ALMANACS scenarios span twelve safety-relevant topics such as ethical reasoning and advanced AI behaviors; they have idiosyncratic premises to invoke model-specific behavior; and they have a train-test distributional shift to encourage faithful explanations. By using another language model to predict behavior based on the explanations, ALMANACS is a fully automated benchmark. While not a replacement for human evaluations, we aim for ALMANACS to be a complementary, automated tool that allows for fast, scalable evaluation. Using ALMANACS, we evaluate counterfactual, rationalization, attention, and Integrated Gradients explanations. Our results are sobering: when averaged across all topics, no explanation method outperforms the explanation-free control. We conclude that despite modest successes in prior work, developing an explanation method that aids simulatability in ALMANACS remains an open challenge.