# Dirichlet-based Uncertainty Quantification for Personalized Federated Learning with Improved Posterior Networks

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.11230 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.11230/

## Key facts

- Cited by 8 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 32 of its 45 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 18 Dec 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 32)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [Communication-Efficient Learning of Deep Networks from Decentralized Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.05629/) (2016)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Fashion-MNIST: a Novel Image Dataset for Benchmarking Machine Learning Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1708.07747/) (2017)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Variational Inference with Normalizing Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.05770/) (2015)
- [A Simple Unified Framework for Detecting Out-of-Distribution Samples and Adversarial Attacks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.03888/) (2018)
- [Normalizing Flows for Probabilistic Modeling and Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.02762/) (2019)
- [Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09457/) (2019)
- [Evidential Deep Learning to Quantify Classification Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.01768/) (2018)
- [MedMNIST v2 -- A large-scale lightweight benchmark for 2D and 3D biomedical image classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.14795/) (2021)
- [FedBN: Federated Learning on Non-IID Features via Local Batch Normalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.07623/) (2021)
- [Predictive Uncertainty Estimation via Prior Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.10501/) (2018)
- [Federated Learning with Personalization Layers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.00818/) (2019)
- [Exploiting Shared Representations for Personalized Federated Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.07078/) (2021)
- [Adaptive Personalized Federated Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.13461/) (2020)
- [Think Locally, Act Globally: Federated Learning with Local and Global Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.01523/) (2020)
- [Federated Learning of a Mixture of Global and Local Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.05516/) (2020)
- [MedMNIST Classification Decathlon: A Lightweight AutoML Benchmark for Medical Image Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.14925/) (2020)
- [FedBABU: Towards Enhanced Representation for Federated Image Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.06042/) (2021)
- [FedBE: Making Bayesian Model Ensemble Applicable to Federated Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.01974/) (2020)
- [Posterior Network: Uncertainty Estimation without OOD Samples via Density-Based Pseudo-Counts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.09239/) (2020)
- [Reverse KL-Divergence Training of Prior Networks: Improved Uncertainty and Adversarial Robustness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.13472/) (2019)
- [Towards Unbiased and Accurate Deferral to Multiple Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.13004/) (2021)
- [Pitfalls of Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification through Loss Minimisation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.06102/) (2022)
- [On Uncertainty, Tempering, and Data Augmentation in Bayesian Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.16481/) (2022)
- [On Second-Order Scoring Rules for Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.12736/) (2023)
- [FedPop: A Bayesian Approach for Personalised Federated Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.03611/) (2022)
- [Uncertainty on Asynchronous Time Event Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.05503/) (2019)

## Built on by (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [Is Epistemic Uncertainty Faithfully Represented by Evidential Deep Learning Methods?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.09056/) (2024)
- [From Risk to Uncertainty: Generating Predictive Uncertainty Measures via Bayesian Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.10727/) (2024)
- [Uncertainty Quantification for Machine Learning in Healthcare: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.02874/) (2025)
- [ReDAct: Uncertainty-Aware Deferral for LLM Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.07036/) (2026)
- [Linear Opinion Pooling for Uncertainty Quantification on Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.04041/) (2024)
- [CUQ-GNN: Committee-based Graph Uncertainty Quantification using Posterior Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.04159/) (2024)
- [Multidimensional Uncertainty Quantification via Optimal Transport](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2509.22380/) (2025)
- [Different Corruptions, Different Signals: Uncertainty and Loss in Federated Data Quality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.31454/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

In modern federated learning, one of the main challenges is to account for inherent heterogeneity and the diverse nature of data distributions for different clients. This problem is often addressed by introducing personalization of the models towards the data distribution of the particular client. However, a personalized model might be unreliable when applied to the data that is not typical for this client. Eventually, it may perform worse for these data than the non-personalized global model trained in a federated way on the data from all the clients. This paper presents a new approach to federated learning that allows selecting a model from global and personalized ones that would perform better for a particular input point. It is achieved through a careful modeling of predictive uncertainties that helps to detect local and global in- and out-of-distribution data and use this information to select the model that is confident in a prediction. The comprehensive experimental evaluation on the popular real-world image datasets shows the superior performance of the model in the presence of out-of-distribution data while performing on par with state-of-the-art personalized federated learning algorithms in the standard scenarios.