# CGS-Mask: Making Time Series Predictions Intuitive for All

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.09513 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.09513/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 20 of its 41 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 Dec 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 20 of 20)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- ["Why Should I Trust You?": Explaining the Predictions of Any Classifier](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.04938/) (2016)
- [Axiomatic Attribution for Deep Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.01365/) (2017)
- [Deep Inside Convolutional Networks: Visualising Image Classification Models and Saliency Maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1312.6034/) (2013)
- [Learning Important Features Through Propagating Activation Differences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.02685/) (2017)
- [RISE: Randomized Input Sampling for Explanation of Black-box Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.07421/) (2018)
- [Attention is not not Explanation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.04626/) (2019)
- [Interpretable Explanations of Black Boxes by Meaningful Perturbation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.03296/) (2017)
- [InceptionTime: Finding AlexNet for Time Series Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.04939/) (2019)
- [All Models are Wrong, but Many are Useful: Learning a Variable's Importance by Studying an Entire Class of Prediction Models Simultaneously](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.01489/) (2018)
- [Top-down Neural Attention by Excitation Backprop](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.00507/) (2016)
- [Understanding Deep Networks via Extremal Perturbations and Smooth Masks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.08485/) (2019)
- [Benchmarking Deep Learning Interpretability in Time Series Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.13924/) (2020)
- [Explaining Time Series Predictions with Dynamic Masks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.05303/) (2021)
- [RetainVis: Visual Analytics with Interpretable and Interactive Recurrent Neural Networks on Electronic Medical Records](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.10724/) (2018)
- [Why Attentions May Not Be Interpretable?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.05656/) (2020)
- [Clinical Intervention Prediction and Understanding using Deep Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.08498/) (2017)
- [Review of Swarm Intelligence-based Feature Selection Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.04103/) (2020)
- [Time to Focus: A Comprehensive Benchmark Using Time Series Attribution Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.03759/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Artificial intelligence (AI) has immense potential in time series prediction, but most explainable tools have limited capabilities in providing a systematic understanding of important features over time. These tools typically rely on evaluating a single time point, overlook the time ordering of inputs, and neglect the time-sensitive nature of time series applications. These factors make it difficult for users, particularly those without domain knowledge, to comprehend AI model decisions and obtain meaningful explanations. We propose CGS-Mask, a post-hoc and model-agnostic cellular genetic strip mask-based saliency approach to address these challenges. CGS-Mask uses consecutive time steps as a cohesive entity to evaluate the impact of features on the final prediction, providing binary and sustained feature importance scores over time. Our algorithm optimizes the mask population iteratively to obtain the optimal mask in a reasonable time. We evaluated CGS-Mask on synthetic and real-world datasets, and it outperformed state-of-the-art methods in elucidating the importance of features over time. According to our pilot user study via a questionnaire survey, CGS-Mask is the most effective approach in presenting easily understandable time series prediction results, enabling users to comprehend the decision-making process of AI models with ease.