# Does Vector Quantization Fail in Spatio-Temporal Forecasting? Exploring a Differentiable Sparse Soft-Vector Quantization Approach

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.03406 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.03406/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 24 of its 47 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 6 Dec 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 24 of 24)

- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [Swin Transformer: Hierarchical Vision Transformer using Shifted Windows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14030/) (2021)
- [The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Deep Features as a Perceptual Metric](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.03924/) (2018)
- [Neural Discrete Representation Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.00937/) (2017)
- [MLP-Mixer: An all-MLP Architecture for Vision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.01601/) (2021)
- [Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machine Learning Approach for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.04214/) (2015)
- [SoundStream: An End-to-End Neural Audio Codec](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03312/) (2021)
- [Autoregressive Image Generation using Residual Quantization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.01941/) (2022)
- [Language Model Beats Diffusion -- Tokenizer is Key to Visual Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.05737/) (2023)
- [MetaFormer Is Actually What You Need for Vision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.11418/) (2021)
- [Deep Spatio-Temporal Residual Networks for Citywide Crowd Flows Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.00081/) (2016)
- [WeatherBench: A benchmark dataset for data-driven weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.00469/) (2020)
- [SEINE: Short-to-Long Video Diffusion Model for Generative Transition and Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.20700/) (2023)
- [Patches Are All You Need?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.09792/) (2022)
- [Disentangling Physical Dynamics from Unknown Factors for Unsupervised Video Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.01460/) (2020)
- [PredRNN: A Recurrent Neural Network for Spatiotemporal Predictive Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.09504/) (2021)
- [Self-supervised Learning with Random-projection Quantizer for Speech Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.01855/) (2022)
- [HiFi-Codec: Group-residual Vector quantization for High Fidelity Audio Codec](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.02765/) (2023)
- [Memory In Memory: A Predictive Neural Network for Learning Higher-Order Non-Stationarity from Spatiotemporal Dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.07490/) (2018)
- [Temporal Attention Unit: Towards Efficient Spatiotemporal Predictive Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.12126/) (2022)
- [OpenSTL: A Comprehensive Benchmark of Spatio-Temporal Predictive Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.11249/) (2023)
- [A Dynamic Multi-Scale Voxel Flow Network for Video Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.09875/) (2023)
- [MMVP: Motion-Matrix-based Video Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.16154/) (2023)
- [NWT: Towards natural audio-to-video generation with representation learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.04283/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [SIGMA-PPG: Statistical-prior Informed Generative Masking Architecture for PPG Foundation Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.21031/) (2026)
- [ReContext: Recursive Evidence Replay as LLM Harness for Long-Context Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.02509/) (2026)
- [Harnessing Generalist Agents for Contextualized Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.05404/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Spatio-temporal forecasting is crucial in various fields and requires a careful balance between identifying subtle patterns and filtering out noise. Vector quantization (VQ) appears well-suited for this purpose, as it quantizes input vectors into a set of codebook vectors or patterns. Although VQ has shown promise in various computer vision tasks, it surprisingly falls short in enhancing the accuracy of spatio-temporal forecasting. We attribute this to two main issues: inaccurate optimization due to non-differentiability and limited representation power in hard-VQ. To tackle these challenges, we introduce Differentiable Sparse Soft-Vector Quantization (SVQ), the first VQ method to enhance spatio-temporal forecasting. SVQ balances detail preservation with noise reduction, offering full differentiability and a solid foundation in sparse regression. Our approach employs a two-layer MLP and an extensive codebook to streamline the sparse regression process, significantly cutting computational costs while simplifying training and improving performance. Empirical studies on five spatio-temporal benchmark datasets show SVQ achieves state-of-the-art results, including a 7.9% improvement on the WeatherBench-S temperature dataset and an average mean absolute error reduction of 9.4% in video prediction benchmarks (Human3.6M, KTH, and KittiCaltech), along with a 17.3% enhancement in image quality (LPIPS). Code is publicly available at https://github.com/Pachark/SVQ-Forecasting.