# Simulation-Based Inference of Surface Accumulation and Basal Melt Rates of an Antarctic Ice Shelf from Isochronal Layers

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.02997 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.02997/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 15 of its 111 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 3 Dec 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 15 of 15)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [Variational Inference: A Review for Statisticians](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1601.00670/) (2016)
- [Normalizing Flows for Probabilistic Modeling and Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.02762/) (2019)
- [Neural Spline Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.04032/) (2019)
- [The frontier of simulation-based inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.01429/) (2019)
- [Sequential Neural Likelihood: Fast Likelihood-free Inference with Autoregressive Flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.07226/) (2018)
- [Automatic Posterior Transformation for Likelihood-Free Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.07488/) (2019)
- [Flexible statistical inference for mechanistic models of neural dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.01861/) (2017)
- [Benchmarking Simulation-Based Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.04653/) (2021)
- [Compositional Score Modeling for Simulation-based Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.14249/) (2022)
- [Robust Neural Posterior Estimation and Statistical Model Criticism](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.06564/) (2022)
- [Investigating the Impact of Model Misspecification in Neural Simulation-based Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.01845/) (2022)
- [GATSBI: Generative Adversarial Training for Simulation-Based Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.06481/) (2022)
- [Probabilistic Numerical Method of Lines for Time-Dependent Partial Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.11847/) (2021)
- [Overview of Approximate Bayesian Computation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.09720/) (2018)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [All-in-one simulation-based inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.09636/) (2024)
- [FNOPE: Simulation-based inference on function spaces with Fourier Neural Operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.22573/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The ice shelves buttressing the Antarctic ice sheet determine the rate of ice-discharge into the surrounding oceans. The geometry of ice shelves, and hence their buttressing strength, is determined by ice flow as well as by the local surface accumulation and basal melt rates, governed by atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Contemporary methods resolve one of these rates, but typically not both. Moreover, there is little information of how they changed in time. We present a new method to simultaneously infer the surface accumulation and basal melt rates averaged over decadal and centennial timescales. We infer the spatial dependence of these rates along flow line transects using internal stratigraphy observed by radars, using a kinematic forward model of internal stratigraphy. We solve the inverse problem using simulation-based inference (SBI). SBI performs Bayesian inference by training neural networks on simulations of the forward model to approximate the posterior distribution, allowing us to also quantify uncertainties over the inferred parameters. We demonstrate the validity of our method on a synthetic example, and apply it to Ekstr"om Ice Shelf, Antarctica, for which newly acquired radar measurements are available. We obtain posterior distributions of surface accumulation and basal melt averaging over 42, 84, 146, and 188 years before 2022. Our results suggest stable atmospheric and oceanographic conditions over this period in this catchment of Antarctica. Use of observed internal stratigraphy can separate the effects of surface accumulation and basal melt, allowing them to be interpreted in a historical context of the last centuries and beyond.