# Learning county from pixels: corn yield prediction with attention-weighted multiple instance learning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.01001 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.01001/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 16 of its 87 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 Dec 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 16 of 16)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01703/) (2019)
- [Swin Transformer: Hierarchical Vision Transformer using Shifted Windows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14030/) (2021)
- [PointNet: Deep Learning on Point Sets for 3D Classification and Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.00593/) (2016)
- [Deep Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.06114/) (2017)
- [Attention-based Deep Multiple Instance Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.04712/) (2018)
- [Transformers in Vision: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.01169/) (2021)
- [Multiple Instance Learning: A Survey of Problem Characteristics and Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.03365/) (2016)
- [A CNN-RNN Framework for Crop Yield Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.09045/) (2019)
- [Crop Yield Prediction Using Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.02860/) (2019)
- [MMST-ViT: Climate Change-aware Crop Yield Prediction via Multi-Modal Spatial-Temporal Vision Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.09067/) (2023)
- [Coupling Machine Learning and Crop Modeling Improves Crop Yield Prediction in the US Corn Belt](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.04060/) (2020)
- [Corn Yield Prediction with Ensemble CNN-DNN](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.14351/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Remote sensing technology has become a promising tool in yield prediction. Most prior work employs satellite imagery for county-level corn yield prediction by spatially aggregating all pixels within a county into a single value, potentially overlooking the detailed information and valuable insights offered by more granular data. To this end, this research examines each county at the pixel level and applies multiple instance learning to leverage detailed information within a county. In addition, our method addresses the "mixed pixel" issue caused by the inconsistent resolution between feature datasets and crop mask, which may introduce noise into the model and therefore hinder accurate yield prediction. Specifically, the attention mechanism is employed to automatically assign weights to different pixels, which can mitigate the influence of mixed pixels. The experimental results show that the developed model outperforms four other machine learning models over the past five years in the U.S. corn belt and demonstrates its best performance in 2022, achieving a coefficient of determination (R2) value of 0.84 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.83. This paper demonstrates the advantages of our approach from both spatial and temporal perspectives. Furthermore, through an in-depth study of the relationship between mixed pixels and attention, it is verified that our approach can capture critical feature information while filtering out noise from mixed pixels.