# Backbone-based Dynamic Graph Spatio-Temporal Network for Epidemic Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.00485 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.00485/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 19 of its 71 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Dec 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 19 of 19)

- [Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.02907/) (2016)
- [Neural Ordinary Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.07366/) (2018)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [An Empirical Evaluation of Generic Convolutional and Recurrent Networks for Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.01271/) (2018)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [Graph WaveNet for Deep Spatial-Temporal Graph Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.00121/) (2019)
- [Adaptive Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.02842/) (2020)
- [Neural Controlled Differential Equations for Irregular Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.08926/) (2020)
- [T-GCN: A Temporal Graph ConvolutionalNetwork for Traffic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.05320/) (2018)
- [Spatial-Temporal Graph ODE Networks for Traffic Flow Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.12931/) (2021)
- [Dynamic Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Prediction: Benchmark and Solution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.14917/) (2021)
- [Discrete-time Temporal Network Embedding via Implicit Hierarchical Learning in Hyperbolic Space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03767/) (2021)
- [Examining COVID-19 Forecasting using Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.03113/) (2020)
- [A Survey on Embedding Dynamic Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.01229/) (2021)
- [Learning the Evolutionary and Multi-scale Graph Structure for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.13816/) (2022)
- [Metapopulation Graph Neural Networks: Deep Metapopulation Epidemic Modeling with Human Mobility](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.14857/) (2023)
- [MPSTAN: Metapopulation-based Spatio-Temporal Attention Network for Epidemic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.12436/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate epidemic forecasting is a critical task in controlling disease transmission. Many deep learning-based models focus only on static or dynamic graphs when constructing spatial information, ignoring their relationship. Additionally, these models often rely on recurrent structures, which can lead to error accumulation and computational time consumption. To address the aforementioned problems, we propose a novel model called Backbone-based Dynamic Graph Spatio-Temporal Network (BDGSTN). Intuitively, the continuous and smooth changes in graph structure, make adjacent graph structures share a basic pattern. To capture this property, we use adaptive methods to generate static backbone graphs containing the primary information and temporal models to generate dynamic temporal graphs of epidemic data, fusing them to generate a backbone-based dynamic graph. To overcome potential limitations associated with recurrent structures, we introduce a linear model DLinear to handle temporal dependencies and combine it with dynamic graph convolution for epidemic forecasting. Extensive experiments on two datasets demonstrate that BDGSTN outperforms baseline models and ablation comparison further verifies the effectiveness of model components. Furthermore, we analyze and measure the significance of backbone and temporal graphs by using information metrics from different aspects. Finally, we compare model parameter volume and training time to confirm the superior complexity and efficiency of BDGSTN.