# Deployment of a Robust and Explainable Mortality Prediction Model: The COVID-19 Pandemic and Beyond

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.17133 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.17133/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 18 of its 59 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 Nov 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 18 of 18)

- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- ["Why Should I Trust You?": Explaining the Predictions of Any Classifier](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.04938/) (2016)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Understanding Black-box Predictions via Influence Functions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04730/) (2017)
- [Averaging Weights Leads to Wider Optima and Better Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.05407/) (2018)
- [Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09457/) (2019)
- [Deep Neural Networks are Easily Fooled: High Confidence Predictions for Unrecognizable Images](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.1897/) (2014)
- [Fooling LIME and SHAP: Adversarial Attacks on Post hoc Explanation Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.02508/) (2019)
- [Influence Functions in Deep Learning Are Fragile](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.14651/) (2020)
- [Imbalanced-learn: A Python Toolbox to Tackle the Curse of Imbalanced Datasets in Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.06570/) (2016)
- [Why Is My Classifier Discriminatory?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.12002/) (2018)
- [What Clinicians Want: Contextualizing Explainable Machine Learning for Clinical End Use](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.05134/) (2019)
- [Drug discovery with explainable artificial intelligence](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.00523/) (2020)
- [Explaining Data-Driven Decisions made by AI Systems: The Counterfactual Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.07417/) (2020)
- [Revisiting the Fragility of Influence Functions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.12922/) (2023)
- [EvalAttAI: A Holistic Approach to Evaluating Attribution Maps in Robust and Non-Robust Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08866/) (2023)
- [Rethinking clinical prediction: Why machine learning must consider year of care and feature aggregation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.12583/) (2018)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This study investigated the performance, explainability, and robustness of deployed artificial intelligence (AI) models in predicting mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond. The first study of its kind, we found that Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) and intelligent training techniques allowed our models to maintain performance amidst significant data shifts. Our results emphasize the importance of developing robust AI models capable of matching or surpassing clinician predictions, even under challenging conditions. Our exploration of model explainability revealed that stochastic models generate more diverse and personalized explanations thereby highlighting the need for AI models that provide detailed and individualized insights in real-world clinical settings. Furthermore, we underscored the importance of quantifying uncertainty in AI models which enables clinicians to make better-informed decisions based on reliable predictions. Our study advocates for prioritizing implementation science in AI research for healthcare and ensuring that AI solutions are practical, beneficial, and sustainable in real-world clinical environments. By addressing unique challenges and complexities in healthcare settings, researchers can develop AI models that effectively improve clinical practice and patient outcomes.