# Adversarial Distribution Balancing for Counterfactual Reasoning

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.16616 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.16616/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 22 of its 46 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 28 Nov 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 22 of 22)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [Domain-Adversarial Training of Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.07818/) (2015)
- [Unsupervised Domain Adaptation by Backpropagation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.7495/) (2014)
- [Adversarial Discriminative Domain Adaptation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.05464/) (2017)
- [Maximum Classifier Discrepancy for Unsupervised Domain Adaptation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1712.02560/) (2017)
- [Estimation and Inference of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Random Forests](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1510.04342/) (2015)
- [Meta-learners for Estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03461/) (2017)
- [Causal Effect Inference with Deep Latent-Variable Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.08821/) (2017)
- [Learning Representations for Counterfactual Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1605.03661/) (2016)
- [Adapting Neural Networks for the Estimation of Treatment Effects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02120/) (2019)
- [Recursive Partitioning for Heterogeneous Causal Effects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1504.01132/) (2015)
- [Fast Computation of Wasserstein Barycenters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1310.4375/) (2013)
- [Estimating Counterfactual Treatment Outcomes over Time Through Adversarially Balanced Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.04083/) (2020)
- [Nonparametric Estimation of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects: From Theory to Learning Algorithms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.10943/) (2021)
- [Automated versus do-it-yourself methods for causal inference: Lessons learned from a data analysis competition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.02641/) (2017)
- [Generalization Bounds and Representation Learning for Estimation of Potential Outcomes and Causal Effects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.07426/) (2020)
- [Perfect Match: A Simple Method for Learning Representations For Counterfactual Inference With Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.00656/) (2018)
- [Counterfactual Representation Learning with Balancing Weights](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.12618/) (2020)
- [DeepMatch: Balancing Deep Covariate Representations for Causal Inference Using Adversarial Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.05664/) (2018)
- [Adversarial Balancing-based Representation Learning for Causal Effect Inference with Observational Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.13335/) (2019)
- [Adversarial Balancing for Causal Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.07406/) (2018)
- [BITES: Balanced Individual Treatment Effect for Survival data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.03448/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The development of causal prediction models is challenged by the fact that the outcome is only observable for the applied (factual) intervention and not for its alternatives (the so-called counterfactuals); in medicine we only know patients' survival for the administered drug and not for other therapeutic options. Machine learning approaches for counterfactual reasoning have to deal with both unobserved outcomes and distributional differences due to non-random treatment administration. Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) addresses similar issues; one has to deal with unobserved outcomes -- the labels of the target domain -- and distributional differences between source and target domain. We propose Adversarial Distribution Balancing for Counterfactual Reasoning (ADBCR), which directly uses potential outcome estimates of the counterfactuals to remove spurious causal relations. We show that ADBCR outcompetes state-of-the-art methods on three benchmark datasets, and demonstrate that ADBCR's performance can be further improved if unlabeled validation data are included in the training procedure to better adapt the model to the validation domain.