# Empirical evaluation of Uncertainty Quantification in Retrieval-Augmented Language Models for Science

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.09358 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.09358/

## Key facts

- Cited by 7 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Generation and context integration, one of 15 directions in Retrieval-augmented generation.
- Builds on 21 of its 27 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 15 Nov 2023.

## Placed in

- Retrieval-augmented generation / [Generation and context integration](https://mlsanity.com/rag/generation-and-context-integration/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 21 of 21)

- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [Exploring the Limits of Transfer Learning with a Unified Text-to-Text Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.10683/) (2019)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Dense Passage Retrieval for Open-Domain Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.04906/) (2020)
- [TriviaQA: A Large Scale Distantly Supervised Challenge Dataset for Reading Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.03551/) (2017)
- [REALM: Retrieval-Augmented Language Model Pre-Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.08909/) (2020)
- [Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05221/) (2022)
- [LaMDA: Language Models for Dialog Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.08239/) (2022)
- [Unsupervised Dense Information Retrieval with Contrastive Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.09118/) (2021)
- [Leveraging Passage Retrieval with Generative Models for Open Domain Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.01282/) (2020)
- [Atlas: Few-shot Learning with Retrieval Augmented Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.03299/) (2022)
- [Semantic Uncertainty: Linguistic Invariances for Uncertainty Estimation in Natural Language Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.09664/) (2023)
- [CoQA: A Conversational Question Answering Challenge](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1808.07042/) (2018)
- [Using DeepSpeed and Megatron to Train Megatron-Turing NLG 530B, A Large-Scale Generative Language Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11990/) (2022)
- [How Can We Know When Language Models Know? On the Calibration of Language Models for Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.00955/) (2020)
- [Demonstrate-Search-Predict: Composing retrieval and language models for knowledge-intensive NLP](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.14024/) (2022)
- [Generating with Confidence: Uncertainty Quantification for Black-box Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19187/) (2023)
- [Uncertainty Quantification with Pre-trained Language Models: A Large-Scale Empirical Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.04714/) (2022)
- [Evaluating the Effectiveness of Retrieval-Augmented Large Language Models in Scientific Document Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.04348/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 7 of 7)

- [Retrieval-Augmented Generation with Graphs (GraphRAG)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.00309/) (2024)
- [Benchmarking LLMs via Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.12794/) (2024)
- [The Need for Guardrails with Large Language Models in Medical Safety-Critical Settings: An Artificial Intelligence Application in the Pharmacovigilance Ecosystem](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.18322/) (2024)
- [Benchmarking LLMs for Environmental Review and Permitting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.07321/) (2024)
- [Generalist Multimodal AI: A Review of Architectures, Challenges and Opportunities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.05496/) (2024)
- [Prompting the Unknown: Understanding Response Uncertainty in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.14845/) (2024)
- [Cross-Disciplinary Knowledge Retrieval and Synthesis: A Compound AI Architecture for Scientific Discovery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.18298/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable achievements in natural language processing tasks, producing high-quality outputs. However, LLMs still exhibit limitations, including the generation of factually incorrect information. In safety-critical applications, it is important to assess the confidence of LLM-generated content to make informed decisions. Retrieval Augmented Language Models (RALMs) is relatively a new area of research in NLP. RALMs offer potential benefits for scientific NLP tasks, as retrieved documents, can serve as evidence to support model-generated content. This inclusion of evidence enhances trustworthiness, as users can verify and explore the retrieved documents to validate model outputs. Quantifying uncertainty in RALM generations further improves trustworthiness, with retrieved text and confidence scores contributing to a comprehensive and reliable model for scientific applications. However, there is limited to no research on UQ for RALMs, particularly in scientific contexts. This study aims to address this gap by conducting a comprehensive evaluation of UQ in RALMs, focusing on scientific tasks. This research investigates how uncertainty scores vary when scientific knowledge is incorporated as pretraining and retrieval data and explores the relationship between uncertainty scores and the accuracy of model-generated outputs. We observe that an existing RALM finetuned with scientific knowledge as the retrieval data tends to be more confident in generating predictions compared to the model pretrained only with scientific knowledge. We also found that RALMs are overconfident in their predictions, making inaccurate predictions more confidently than accurate ones. Scientific knowledge provided either as pretraining or retrieval corpus does not help alleviate this issue. We released our code, data and dashboards at https://github.com/pnnl/EXPERT2.