# ChatGPT Prompting Cannot Estimate Predictive Uncertainty in High-Resource Languages

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.06427 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.06427/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 13 of its 23 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 10 Nov 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Large Language Models are Zero-Shot Reasoners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.11916/) (2022)
- [Unsupervised Cross-lingual Representation Learning at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.02116/) (2019)
- [Deep reinforcement learning from human preferences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03741/) (2017)
- [A Multitask, Multilingual, Multimodal Evaluation of ChatGPT on Reasoning, Hallucination, and Interactivity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.04023/) (2023)
- [Generalized Out-of-Distribution Detection: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.11334/) (2021)
- [Is ChatGPT a General-Purpose Natural Language Processing Task Solver?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.06476/) (2023)
- [Conformal Prediction with Large Language Models for Multi-Choice Question Answering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.18404/) (2023)
- [Evaluating ChatGPT's Information Extraction Capabilities: An Assessment of Performance, Explainability, Calibration, and Faithfulness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.11633/) (2023)
- [XLM-T: Multilingual Language Models in Twitter for Sentiment Analysis and Beyond](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.12250/) (2021)
- [Common Sense Beyond English: Evaluating and Improving Multilingual Language Models for Commonsense Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.06937/) (2021)
- [Survey on Leveraging Uncertainty Estimation Towards Trustworthy Deep Neural Networks: The Case of Reject Option and Post-training Processing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.04906/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [One For All: LLM-based Heterogeneous Mission Planning in Precision Agriculture](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.10106/) (2025)
- [Solomonoff-Inspired Hypothesis Ranking with LLMs for Prediction Under Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.17145/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

ChatGPT took the world by storm for its impressive abilities. Due to its release without documentation, scientists immediately attempted to identify its limits, mainly through its performance in natural language processing (NLP) tasks. This paper aims to join the growing literature regarding ChatGPT's abilities by focusing on its performance in high-resource languages and on its capacity to predict its answers' accuracy by giving a confidence level. The analysis of high-resource languages is of interest as studies have shown that low-resource languages perform worse than English in NLP tasks, but no study so far has analysed whether high-resource languages perform as well as English. The analysis of ChatGPT's confidence calibration has not been carried out before either and is critical to learn about ChatGPT's trustworthiness. In order to study these two aspects, five high-resource languages and two NLP tasks were chosen. ChatGPT was asked to perform both tasks in the five languages and to give a numerical confidence value for each answer. The results show that all the selected high-resource languages perform similarly and that ChatGPT does not have a good confidence calibration, often being overconfident and never giving low confidence values.