# Vital Sign Forecasting for Sepsis Patients in ICUs

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.04770 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.04770/

## Key facts

- Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 10 of its 30 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Nov 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [Layer Normalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1607.06450/) (2016)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [N-BEATS: Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.10437/) (2019)
- [Language Modeling with Gated Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.08083/) (2016)
- [Soft-DTW: a Differentiable Loss Function for Time-Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.01541/) (2017)
- [N-HiTS: Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12886/) (2022)
- [Shape and Time Distortion Loss for Training Deep Time Series Forecasting Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.09020/) (2019)
- [A Transformer Architecture for Stress Detection from ECG](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.09737/) (2021)
- [Attentive Cross-modal Connections for Deep Multimodal Wearable-based Emotion Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.02241/) (2021)
- [Interpreting Forecasted Vital Signs Using N-BEATS in Sepsis Patients](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.14016/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [Low-Rank Adaptation of Time Series Foundational Models for Out-of-Domain Modality Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.10216/) (2024)
- [Beyond LoRA: Exploring Efficient Fine-Tuning Techniques for Time Series Foundational Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.11302/) (2024)
- [TFT-multi: simultaneous forecasting of vital sign trajectories in the ICU](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.15586/) (2024)
- [Interpretable Vital Sign Forecasting with Model Agnostic Attention Maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.01714/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Sepsis and septic shock are a critical medical condition affecting millions globally, with a substantial mortality rate. This paper uses state-of-the-art deep learning (DL) architectures to introduce a multi-step forecasting system to predict vital signs indicative of septic shock progression in Intensive Care Units (ICUs). Our approach utilizes a short window of historical vital sign data to forecast future physiological conditions. We introduce a DL-based vital sign forecasting system that predicts up to 3 hours of future vital signs from 6 hours of past data. We further adopt the DILATE loss function to capture better the shape and temporal dynamics of vital signs, which are critical for clinical decision-making. We compare three DL models, N-BEATS, N-HiTS, and Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT), using the publicly available eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD), highlighting their forecasting capabilities in a critical care setting. We evaluate the performance of our models using mean squared error (MSE) and dynamic time warping (DTW) metrics. Our findings show that while TFT excels in capturing overall trends, N-HiTS is superior in retaining short-term fluctuations within a predefined range. This paper demonstrates the potential of deep learning in transforming the monitoring systems in ICUs, potentially leading to significant improvements in patient care and outcomes by accurately forecasting vital signs to assist healthcare providers in detecting early signs of physiological instability and anticipating septic shock.