# Uncertainty Quantification of Deep Learning for Spatiotemporal Data: Challenges and Opportunities

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.02485 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.02485/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 14 of its 43 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 4 Nov 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 14 of 14)

- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Variational Inference: A Review for Statisticians](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1601.00670/) (2016)
- [A Survey of Uncertainty in Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03342/) (2021)
- [Predictive Uncertainty Estimation via Prior Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.10501/) (2018)
- [T-GCN: A Temporal Graph ConvolutionalNetwork for Traffic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.05320/) (2018)
- [Hands-on Bayesian Neural Networks -- a Tutorial for Deep Learning Users](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.06823/) (2020)
- [Adversarial Uncertainty Quantification in Physics-Informed Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.04026/) (2018)
- [High-Quality Prediction Intervals for Deep Learning: A Distribution-Free, Ensembled Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.07167/) (2018)
- [Gaussian YOLOv3: An Accurate and Fast Object Detector Using Localization Uncertainty for Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.04620/) (2019)
- [Quantifying Uncertainty in Deep Spatiotemporal Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.11982/) (2021)
- [UQGAN: A Unified Model for Uncertainty Quantification of Deep Classifiers trained via Conditional GANs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.13279/) (2022)
- [Semi-supervised Learning with the EM Algorithm: A Comparative Study between Unstructured and Structured Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.12442/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Uncertainty-Aware Crime Prediction With Spatial Temporal Multivariate Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.04193/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

With the advancement of GPS, remote sensing, and computational simulations, large amounts of geospatial and spatiotemporal data are being collected at an increasing speed. Such emerging spatiotemporal big data assets, together with the recent progress of deep learning technologies, provide unique opportunities to transform society. However, it is widely recognized that deep learning sometimes makes unexpected and incorrect predictions with unwarranted confidence, causing severe consequences in high-stake decision-making applications (e.g., disaster management, medical diagnosis, autonomous driving). Uncertainty quantification (UQ) aims to estimate a deep learning model's confidence. This paper provides a brief overview of UQ of deep learning for spatiotemporal data, including its unique challenges and existing methods. We particularly focus on the importance of uncertainty sources. We identify several future research directions for spatiotemporal data.