# Causal Dynamic Variational Autoencoder for Counterfactual Regression in Longitudinal Data

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.10559 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10559/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 57 of its 144 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 16 Oct 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 57)

- [PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01703/) (2019)
- [Learning Phrase Representations using RNN Encoder-Decoder for Statistical Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1406.1078/) (2014)
- [Sequence to Sequence Learning with Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.3215/) (2014)
- [Categorical Reparameterization with Gumbel-Softmax](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.01144/) (2016)
- [Optuna: A Next-generation Hyperparameter Optimization Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.10902/) (2019)
- [Averaging Weights Leads to Wider Optima and Better Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.05407/) (2018)
- [Generating Sentences from a Continuous Space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.06349/) (2015)
- [Estimation and Inference of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Random Forests](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1510.04342/) (2015)
- [Causal Effect Inference with Deep Latent-Variable Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.08821/) (2017)
- [RETAIN: An Interpretable Predictive Model for Healthcare using Reverse Time Attention Mechanism](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.05745/) (2016)
- [Quasi-Oracle Estimation of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1712.04912/) (2017)
- [Learning Representations for Counterfactual Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1605.03661/) (2016)
- [Ladder Variational Autoencoders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.02282/) (2016)
- [Generalized Random Forests](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.01271/) (2016)
- [Adapting Neural Networks for the Estimation of Treatment Effects](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02120/) (2019)
- [Variational Deep Embedding: An Unsupervised and Generative Approach to Clustering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.05148/) (2016)
- [Fast Computation of Wasserstein Barycenters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1310.4375/) (2013)
- [Diagnosing and Enhancing VAE Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.05789/) (2019)
- [Cyclical Annealing Schedule: A Simple Approach to Mitigating KL Vanishing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.10145/) (2019)
- [Deep Kalman Filters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.05121/) (2015)
- [Estimating Counterfactual Treatment Outcomes over Time Through Adversarially Balanced Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.04083/) (2020)
- [Identifying Causal Effects With Proxy Variables of an Unmeasured Confounder](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.08816/) (2016)
- [Dynamical Variational Autoencoders: A Comprehensive Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.12595/) (2020)
- [Causal Transformer for Estimating Counterfactual Outcomes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.07258/) (2022)
- [Don't Blame the ELBO! A Linear VAE Perspective on Posterior Collapse](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.02469/) (2019)
- [Disentangled Sequential Autoencoder](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.02991/) (2018)
- [Automated versus do-it-yourself methods for causal inference: Lessons learned from a data analysis competition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1707.02641/) (2017)
- [The Blessings of Multiple Causes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.06826/) (2018)
- [Support and Invertibility in Domain-Invariant Representations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.03448/) (2019)
- [A Review of the Gumbel-max Trick and its Extensions for Discrete Stochasticity in Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.01515/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [From Static Risk to Dynamic Trajectories: Toward World-Model-Inspired Clinical Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.16927/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurately estimating treatment effects over time is crucial in fields such as precision medicine, epidemiology, economics, and marketing. Many current methods for estimating treatment effects over time assume that all confounders are observed or attempt to infer unobserved ones. In contrast, our approach focuses on unobserved adjustment variables, which specifically have a causal effect on the outcome sequence. Under the assumption of unconfoundedness, we address estimating Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in response to treatment due to these unobserved adjustment variables. Our proposed Causal Dynamic Variational Autoencoder (CDVAE) is grounded in theoretical guarantees concerning the validity of latent adjustment variables and generalization bounds on CATE estimation error. Extensive evaluations on synthetic and real-world datasets show that CDVAE outperforms existing baselines. Moreover, we demonstrate that state-of-the-art models significantly improve their CATE estimates when augmented with the latent substitutes learned by CDVAE, approaching oracle-level performance without direct access to the true adjustment variables.