# The WayHome: Long-term Motion Prediction on Dynamically Scaled

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.04232 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.04232/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 20 of its 21 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 6 Oct 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 20 of 20)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [EfficientNet: Rethinking Model Scaling for Convolutional Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.11946/) (2019)
- [PointPillars: Fast Encoders for Object Detection from Point Clouds](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.05784/) (2018)
- [Rethinking Semantic Segmentation from a Sequence-to-Sequence Perspective with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.15840/) (2020)
- [Argoverse: 3D Tracking and Forecasting with Rich Maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.02620/) (2019)
- [Argoverse 2: Next Generation Datasets for Self-Driving Perception and Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.00493/) (2023)
- [Large Scale Interactive Motion Forecasting for Autonomous Driving : The Waymo Open Motion Dataset](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.10133/) (2021)
- [MultiPath: Multiple Probabilistic Anchor Trajectory Hypotheses for Behavior Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.05449/) (2019)
- [Wayformer: Motion Forecasting via Simple & Efficient Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05844/) (2022)
- [MultiPath++: Efficient Information Fusion and Trajectory Aggregation for Behavior Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.14973/) (2021)
- [GOHOME: Graph-Oriented Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.01827/) (2021)
- [HOME: Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.10968/) (2021)
- [Occupancy Flow Fields for Motion Forecasting in Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.03875/) (2022)
- [MTR-A: 1st Place Solution for 2022 Waymo Open Dataset Challenge -- Motion Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.10033/) (2022)
- [StopNet: Scalable Trajectory and Occupancy Prediction for Urban Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.00991/) (2022)
- [HOPE: Hierarchical Spatial-temporal Network for Occupancy Flow Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.10118/) (2022)
- [VectorFlow: Combining Images and Vectors for Traffic Occupancy and Flow Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.04530/) (2022)
- [Golfer: Trajectory Prediction with Masked Goal Conditioning MnM Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.00738/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

One of the key challenges for autonomous vehicles is the ability to accurately predict the motion of other objects in the surrounding environment, such as pedestrians or other vehicles. In this contribution, a novel motion forecasting approach for autonomous vehicles is developed, inspired by the work of Gilles et al. [1]. We predict multiple heatmaps with a neuralnetwork-based model for every traffic participant in the vicinity of the autonomous vehicle; with one heatmap per timestep. The heatmaps are used as input to a novel sampling algorithm that extracts coordinates corresponding to the most likely future positions. We experiment with different encoders and decoders, as well as a comparison of two loss functions. Additionally, a new grid-scaling technique is introduced, showing further improved performance. Overall, our approach improves stateof-the-art miss rate performance for the function-relevant prediction interval of 3 seconds while being competitive in longer prediction intervals (up to eight seconds). The evaluation is done on the public 2022 Waymo motion challenge.