# TimeGPT-1

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.03589 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.03589/

## Key facts

- Cited by 158 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 19 of its 28 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 Oct 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 19 of 19)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.14730/) (2022)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [An Empirical Evaluation of Generic Convolutional and Recurrent Networks for Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.01271/) (2018)
- [Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.13504/) (2022)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.02186/) (2022)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [N-BEATS: Neural basis expansion analysis for interpretable time series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.10437/) (2019)
- [Deep Learning for Time Series Forecasting: Tutorial and Literature Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.10240/) (2020)
- [Meta-learning framework with applications to zero-shot time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.02887/) (2020)
- [Neural basis expansion analysis with exogenous variables: Forecasting electricity prices with NBEATSx](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.05522/) (2021)
- [Criteria for Classifying Forecasting Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.03523/) (2022)
- [MQTransformer: Multi-Horizon Forecasts with Context Dependent and Feedback-Aware Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.14799/) (2020)
- [Probabilistic Hierarchical Forecasting with Deep Poisson Mixtures](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.13179/) (2021)
- [Deep Learning based Forecasting: a case study from the online fashion industry](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14406/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 158)

- [A decoder-only foundation model for time-series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.10688/) (2023)
- [Unified Training of Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02592/) (2024)
- [MOMENT: A Family of Open Time-series Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03885/) (2024)
- [Time-MoE: Billion-Scale Time Series Foundation Models with Mixture of Experts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.16040/) (2024)
- [Timer: Generative Pre-trained Transformers Are Large Time Series Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02368/) (2024)
- [Deep Time Series Models: A Comprehensive Survey and Benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.13278/) (2024)
- [TEMPO: Prompt-based Generative Pre-trained Transformer for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.04948/) (2023)
- [Large Language Model (LLM) for Telecommunications: A Comprehensive Survey on Principles, Key Techniques, and Opportunities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.10825/) (2024)
- [GIVT: Generative Infinite-Vocabulary Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.02116/) (2023)
- [Large Scale Transfer Learning for Tabular Data via Language Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.12031/) (2024)
- [Scaling Wearable Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.13638/) (2024)
- [Empowering Time Series Analysis with Large Language Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.03182/) (2024)
- [ImputeFormer: Low Rankness-Induced Transformers for Generalizable Spatiotemporal Imputation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.01728/) (2023)
- [TimeSeriesExam: A time series understanding exam](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.14752/) (2024)
- [Time Series Forecasting with LLMs: Understanding and Enhancing Model Capabilities](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.10835/) (2024)
- [Position: What Can Large Language Models Tell Us about Time Series Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02713/) (2024)
- [Retrieval Augmented Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2411.08249/) (2024)
- [TS-RAG: Retrieval-Augmented Generation based Time Series Foundation Models are Stronger Zero-Shot Forecaster](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.07649/) (2025)
- [Towards a General Time Series Anomaly Detector with Adaptive Bottlenecks and Dual Adversarial Decoders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.15273/) (2024)
- [In-Context Fine-Tuning for Time-Series Foundation Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.24087/) (2024)
- [Scaling Law for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.15124/) (2024)
- [TimeDiT: General-purpose Diffusion Transformers for Time Series Foundation Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.02322/) (2024)
- [Towards a General Time Series Forecasting Model with Unified Representation and Adaptive Transfer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.17478/) (2024)
- [TS-Reasoner: Domain-Oriented Time Series Inference Agents for Reasoning and Automated Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.04047/) (2024)
- [Large Language Model Guided Knowledge Distillation for Time Series Anomaly Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.15123/) (2024)
- [TimeSeriesBench: An Industrial-Grade Benchmark for Time Series Anomaly Detection Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.10802/) (2024)
- [MIRA: Medical Time Series Foundation Model for Real-World Health Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.07584/) (2025)
- [Scaling-laws for Large Time-series Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.13867/) (2024)
- [Beyond Sensor Data: Foundation Models of Behavioral Data from Wearables Improve Health Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.00191/) (2025)
- [S2IP-LLM: Semantic Space Informed Prompt Learning with LLM for Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.05798/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

In this paper, we introduce TimeGPT, the first foundation model for time series, capable of generating accurate predictions for diverse datasets not seen during training. We evaluate our pre-trained model against established statistical, machine learning, and deep learning methods, demonstrating that TimeGPT zero-shot inference excels in performance, efficiency, and simplicity. Our study provides compelling evidence that insights from other domains of artificial intelligence can be effectively applied to time series analysis. We conclude that large-scale time series models offer an exciting opportunity to democratize access to precise predictions and reduce uncertainty by leveraging the capabilities of contemporary advancements in deep learning.