# MedDiffusion: Boosting Health Risk Prediction via Diffusion-based Data Augmentation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.02520 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.02520/

## Key facts

- Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 28 of its 42 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 4 Oct 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 28 of 28)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [High-Resolution Image Synthesis with Latent Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.10752/) (2021)
- [Hierarchical Text-Conditional Image Generation with CLIP Latents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.06125/) (2022)
- [Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.00667/) (2022)
- [GLIDE: Towards Photorealistic Image Generation and Editing with Text-Guided Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.10741/) (2021)
- [Structured Denoising Diffusion Models in Discrete State-Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03006/) (2021)
- [Image Super-Resolution via Iterative Refinement](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.07636/) (2021)
- [Diffusion-LM Improves Controllable Text Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14217/) (2022)
- [CSDI: Conditional Score-based Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Time Series Imputation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03502/) (2021)
- [DiffuSeq: Sequence to Sequence Text Generation with Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.08933/) (2022)
- [Grad-TTS: A Diffusion Probabilistic Model for Text-to-Speech](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.06337/) (2021)
- [SRDiff: Single Image Super-Resolution with Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.14951/) (2021)
- [TabDDPM: Modelling Tabular Data with Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.15421/) (2022)
- [RETAIN: An Interpretable Predictive Model for Healthcare using Reverse Time Attention Mechanism](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.05745/) (2016)
- [Autoregressive Denoising Diffusion Models for Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.12072/) (2021)
- [Effective Data Augmentation With Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.07944/) (2023)
- [Generating Multi-label Discrete Patient Records using Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.06490/) (2017)
- [Dipole: Diagnosis Prediction in Healthcare via Attention-based Bidirectional Recurrent Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.05764/) (2017)
- [Attend and Diagnose: Clinical Time Series Analysis using Attention Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.03905/) (2017)
- [RetainVis: Visual Analytics with Interpretable and Interactive Recurrent Neural Networks on Electronic Medical Records](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.10724/) (2018)
- [AdaCare: Explainable Clinical Health Status Representation Learning via Scale-Adaptive Feature Extraction and Recalibration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.12205/) (2019)
- [Boosting Deep Learning Risk Prediction with Generative Adversarial Networks for Electronic Health Records](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.01648/) (2017)
- [CamDiff: Camouflage Image Augmentation via Diffusion Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.05469/) (2023)
- [UNITE: Uncertainty-based Health Risk Prediction Leveraging Multi-sourced Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11389/) (2020)
- [Multimodal Data Augmentation for Image Captioning using Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.01855/) (2023)
- [Spatial-temporal Transformer-guided Diffusion based Data Augmentation for Efficient Skeleton-based Action Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13434/) (2023)
- [Data Augmentation for Environmental Sound Classification Using Diffusion Probabilistic Model with Top-k Selection Discriminator](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.15161/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 4 of 4)

- [Iterative Online Image Synthesis via Diffusion Model for Imbalanced Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.08407/) (2024)
- [ViCTr: Vital Consistency Transfer for Pathology Aware Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.04963/) (2025)
- [Grounded by Experience: Generative Healthcare Prediction Augmented with Hierarchical Agentic Retrieval](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.13293/) (2025)
- [Critical Challenges and Guidelines in Evaluating Synthetic Tabular Data: A Systematic Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.18544/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Health risk prediction is one of the fundamental tasks under predictive modeling in the medical domain, which aims to forecast the potential health risks that patients may face in the future using their historical Electronic Health Records (EHR). Researchers have developed several risk prediction models to handle the unique challenges of EHR data, such as its sequential nature, high dimensionality, and inherent noise. These models have yielded impressive results. Nonetheless, a key issue undermining their effectiveness is data insufficiency. A variety of data generation and augmentation methods have been introduced to mitigate this issue by expanding the size of the training data set through the learning of underlying data distributions. However, the performance of these methods is often limited due to their task-unrelated design. To address these shortcomings, this paper introduces a novel, end-to-end diffusion-based risk prediction model, named MedDiffusion. It enhances risk prediction performance by creating synthetic patient data during training to enlarge sample space. Furthermore, MedDiffusion discerns hidden relationships between patient visits using a step-wise attention mechanism, enabling the model to automatically retain the most vital information for generating high-quality data. Experimental evaluation on four real-world medical datasets demonstrates that MedDiffusion outperforms 14 cutting-edge baselines in terms of PR-AUC, F1, and Cohen's Kappa. We also conduct ablation studies and benchmark our model against GAN-based alternatives to further validate the rationality and adaptability of our model design. Additionally, we analyze generated data to offer fresh insights into the model's interpretability.