# Unified Uncertainty Calibration

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.01202 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01202/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 41 of its 53 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 Oct 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 41)

- [mixup: Beyond Empirical Risk Minimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.09412/) (2017)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Benchmarking Neural Network Robustness to Common Corruptions and Perturbations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.12261/) (2019)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [Describing Textures in the Wild](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1311.3618/) (2013)
- [Invariant Risk Minimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.02893/) (2019)
- [The Many Faces of Robustness: A Critical Analysis of Out-of-Distribution Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.16241/) (2020)
- [Concrete Problems in AI Safety](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.06565/) (2016)
- [Do ImageNet Classifiers Generalize to ImageNet?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1902.10811/) (2019)
- [A Simple Unified Framework for Detecting Out-of-Distribution Samples and Adversarial Attacks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.03888/) (2018)
- [Natural Adversarial Examples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.07174/) (2019)
- [Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.02530/) (2019)
- [Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Machine Learning: An Introduction to Concepts and Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.09457/) (2019)
- [A Review of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning: Techniques, Applications and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.06225/) (2020)
- [Generalized Out-of-Distribution Detection: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.11334/) (2021)
- [A Survey of Uncertainty in Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03342/) (2021)
- [Out-of-Distribution Detection with Deep Nearest Neighbors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.06507/) (2022)
- [Conformal Prediction Under Covariate Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.06019/) (2019)
- [Using Self-Supervised Learning Can Improve Model Robustness and Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.12340/) (2019)
- [Scaling Out-of-Distribution Detection for Real-World Settings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.11132/) (2019)
- [A Unifying Review of Deep and Shallow Anomaly Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.11732/) (2020)
- [ViM: Out-Of-Distribution with Virtual-logit Matching](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.10807/) (2022)
- [The Pitfalls of Simplicity Bias in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.07710/) (2020)
- [Open-Set Recognition: a Good Closed-Set Classifier is All You Need?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.06207/) (2021)
- [Why ReLU networks yield high-confidence predictions far away from the training data and how to mitigate the problem](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.05720/) (2018)
- [OpenOOD: Benchmarking Generalized Out-of-Distribution Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.07242/) (2022)
- [Gradient Starvation: A Learning Proclivity in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.09468/) (2020)
- [Mitigating Neural Network Overconfidence with Logit Normalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.09310/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

To build robust, fair, and safe AI systems, we would like our classifiers to say ``I don't know'' when facing test examples that are difficult or fall outside of the training classes.The ubiquitous strategy to predict under uncertainty is the simplistic reject-or-classify rule: abstain from prediction if epistemic uncertainty is high, classify otherwise.Unfortunately, this recipe does not allow different sources of uncertainty to communicate with each other, produces miscalibrated predictions, and it does not allow to correct for misspecifications in our uncertainty estimates. To address these three issues, we introduce unified uncertainty calibration (U2C), a holistic framework to combine aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. U2C enables a clean learning-theoretical analysis of uncertainty estimation, and outperforms reject-or-classify across a variety of ImageNet benchmarks. Our code is available at: https://github.com/facebookresearch/UnifiedUncertaintyCalibration