# Back to the Future: Towards Explainable Temporal Reasoning with Large Language Models

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.01074 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.01074/

## Key facts

- Cited by 5 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Knowledge- and tool-augmented reasoning, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 12 of its 66 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 Oct 2023.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Knowledge- and tool-augmented reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/lr/knowledge-and-tool-augmented-reasoning/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [Llama 2: Open Foundation and Fine-Tuned Chat Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.09288/) (2023)
- [Judging LLM-as-a-Judge with MT-Bench and Chatbot Arena](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05685/) (2023)
- [Scaling Instruction-Finetuned Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.11416/) (2022)
- [Self-Instruct: Aligning Language Models with Self-Generated Instructions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.10560/) (2022)
- [Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.12712/) (2023)
- [Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.07682/) (2022)
- [The RefinedWeb Dataset for Falcon LLM: Outperforming Curated Corpora with Web Data, and Web Data Only](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.01116/) (2023)
- [RewriteLM: An Instruction-Tuned Large Language Model for Text Rewriting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.15685/) (2023)
- [Language Models Can Improve Event Prediction by Few-Shot Abductive Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.16646/) (2023)
- [ChatGPT Evaluation on Sentence Level Relations: A Focus on Temporal, Causal, and Discourse Relations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.14827/) (2023)
- [Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting Without Knowledge Using In-Context Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.10613/) (2023)
- [Unlocking Temporal Question Answering for Large Language Models with Tailor-Made Reasoning Logic](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.15014/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [Living in the Moment: Can Large Language Models Grasp Co-Temporal Reasoning?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.09072/) (2024)
- [Timo: Towards Better Temporal Reasoning for Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.14192/) (2024)
- [Chain-of-History Reasoning for Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.14382/) (2024)
- [Remember This Event That Year? Assessing Temporal Information and Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.11997/) (2024)
- [The Periodic Table of LLM Reasoning: A Structured Survey of Reasoning Paradigms, Methods, and Failure Modes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.11470/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Temporal reasoning is a crucial NLP task, providing a nuanced understanding of time-sensitive contexts within textual data. Although recent advancements in LLMs have demonstrated their potential in temporal reasoning, the predominant focus has been on tasks such as temporal expression and temporal relation extraction. These tasks are primarily designed for the extraction of direct and past temporal cues and to engage in simple reasoning processes. A significant gap remains when considering complex reasoning tasks such as event forecasting, which requires multi-step temporal reasoning on events and prediction on the future timestamp. Another notable limitation of existing methods is their incapability to provide an illustration of their reasoning process, hindering explainability. In this paper, we introduce the first task of explainable temporal reasoning, to predict an event's occurrence at a future timestamp based on context which requires multiple reasoning over multiple events, and subsequently provide a clear explanation for their prediction. Our task offers a comprehensive evaluation of both the LLMs' complex temporal reasoning ability, the future event prediction ability, and explainability-a critical attribute for AI applications. To support this task, we present the first multi-source instruction-tuning dataset of explainable temporal reasoning (ExpTime) with 26k derived from the temporal knowledge graph datasets and their temporal reasoning paths, using a novel knowledge-graph-instructed-generation strategy. Based on the dataset, we propose the first open-source LLM series TimeLlaMA based on the foundation LlaMA2, with the ability of instruction following for explainable temporal reasoning. We compare the performance of our method and a variety of LLMs, where our method achieves the state-of-the-art performance of temporal prediction and explanation.