# Lightweight Regression Model with Prediction Interval Estimation for Computer Vision-based Winter Road Surface Condition Monitoring

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.00923 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.00923/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 10 of its 38 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 2 Oct 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01703/) (2019)
- [Very Deep Convolutional Networks for Large-Scale Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.1556/) (2014)
- [EfficientNet: Rethinking Model Scaling for Convolutional Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.11946/) (2019)
- [Rethinking the Inception Architecture for Computer Vision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.00567/) (2015)
- [MobileNetV2: Inverted Residuals and Linear Bottlenecks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.04381/) (2018)
- [Identity Mappings in Deep Residual Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.05027/) (2016)
- [A Review of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning: Techniques, Applications and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.06225/) (2020)
- [Valid prediction intervals for regression problems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.00363/) (2021)
- [Assessment of Deep Convolutional Neural Networks for Road Surface Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1804.08872/) (2018)

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [Road Surface Friction Estimation for Winter Conditions Utilising General Visual Features](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.16578/) (2024)
- [Road Grip Uncertainty Estimation Through Surface State Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.08452/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Winter conditions pose several challenges for automated driving applications. A key challenge during winter is accurate assessment of road surface condition, as its impact on friction is a critical parameter for safely and reliably controlling a vehicle. This paper proposes a deep learning regression model, SIWNet, capable of estimating road surface friction properties from camera images. SIWNet extends state of the art by including an uncertainty estimation mechanism in the architecture. This is achieved by including an additional head in the network, which estimates a prediction interval. The prediction interval head is trained with a maximum likelihood loss function. The model was trained and tested with the SeeingThroughFog dataset, which features corresponding road friction sensor readings and images from an instrumented vehicle. Acquired results highlight the functionality of the prediction interval estimation of SIWNet, while the network also achieved similar point estimate accuracy as the previous state of the art. Furthermore, the SIWNet architecture is several times more lightweight than the previously applied state-of-the-art model, resulting in more practical and efficient deployment.