# Early Churn Prediction from Large Scale User-Product Interaction Time Series

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.14390 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.14390/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 19 of its 48 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 25 Sep 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 19 of 19)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [Very Deep Convolutional Networks for Large-Scale Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.1556/) (2014)
- [Swin Transformer: Hierarchical Vision Transformer using Shifted Windows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14030/) (2021)
- [Batch Normalization: Accelerating Deep Network Training by Reducing Internal Covariate Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1502.03167/) (2015)
- [Rethinking the Inception Architecture for Computer Vision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.00567/) (2015)
- [Going Deeper with Convolutions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.4842/) (2014)
- [A ConvNet for the 2020s](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.03545/) (2022)
- [Inception-v4, Inception-ResNet and the Impact of Residual Connections on Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1602.07261/) (2016)
- [Deep learning for time series classification: a review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.04356/) (2018)
- [InceptionTime: Finding AlexNet for Time Series Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.04939/) (2019)
- [Horovod: fast and easy distributed deep learning in TensorFlow](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.05799/) (2018)
- [Multi-Scale Convolutional Neural Networks for Time Series Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.06995/) (2016)
- [Improving data-driven global weather prediction using deep convolutional neural networks on a cubed sphere](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.11927/) (2020)
- [Churn analysis using deep convolutional neural networks and autoencoders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1604.05377/) (2016)
- [ConvNeXt-backbone HoVerNet for nuclei segmentation and classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.13560/) (2022)
- [CNN-CASS: CNN for Classification of Coronary Artery Stenosis Score in MPR Images](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08593/) (2020)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [How Early Is Early Enough? Design-Dependent Observation-Window Sufficiency in Subscription Churn Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.00473/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

User churn, characterized by customers ending their relationship with a business, has profound economic consequences across various Business-to-Customer scenarios. For numerous system-to-user actions, such as promotional discounts and retention campaigns, predicting potential churners stands as a primary objective. In volatile sectors like fantasy sports, unpredictable factors such as international sports events can influence even regular spending habits. Consequently, while transaction history and user-product interaction are valuable in predicting churn, they demand deep domain knowledge and intricate feature engineering. Additionally, feature development for churn prediction systems can be resource-intensive, particularly in production settings serving 200m+ users, where inference pipelines largely focus on feature engineering. This paper conducts an exhaustive study on predicting user churn using historical data. We aim to create a model forecasting customer churn likelihood, facilitating businesses in comprehending attrition trends and formulating effective retention plans. Our approach treats churn prediction as multivariate time series classification, demonstrating that combining user activity and deep neural networks yields remarkable results for churn prediction in complex business-to-customer contexts.