# Sherlock Holmes Doesn't Play Dice: The mathematics of uncertain reasoning when something may happen, that one is not even able to figure out

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.03222 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.03222/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 3 of its 110 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Sep 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Generalized Evidence Theory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1404.4801/) (2014)
- [Collective dynamics of belief evolution under cognitive coherence and social conformity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1509.01502/) (2015)
- [The Nature of the Unnormalized Beliefs Encountered in the Transferable Belief Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1303.5430/) (2013)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [A Physical and Mathematical Framework for the Semantic Theory of Evolution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.18984/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

While Evidence Theory (also known as Dempster-Shafer Theory, or Belief Functions Theory) is being increasingly used in data fusion, its potentialities in the Social and Life Sciences are often obscured by lack of awareness of its distinctive features. In particular, with this paper I stress that an extended version of Evidence Theory can express the uncertainty deriving from the fear that events may materialize, that one is not even able to figure out. By contrast, Probability Theory must limit itself to the possibilities that a decision-maker is currently envisaging. I compare this extended version of Evidence Theory to sophisticated extensions of Probability Theory, such as imprecise and sub-additive probabilities, as well as unconventional versions of Information Theory that are employed in data fusion and transmission of cultural information. A further extension to multi-agent interaction is outlined.