# TFBEST: Dual-Aspect Transformer with Learnable Positional Encoding for Failure Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.02641 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.02641/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 16 of its 31 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 6 Sep 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 16 of 16)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [Neural Machine Translation by Jointly Learning to Align and Translate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.0473/) (2014)
- [Sequence to Sequence Learning with Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.3215/) (2014)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [Enhancing the Locality and Breaking the Memory Bottleneck of Transformer on Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.00235/) (2019)
- [Transformers in Time Series: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.07125/) (2022)
- [A Survey of Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.04554/) (2021)
- [Anomaly Transformer: Time Series Anomaly Detection with Association Discrepancy](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.02642/) (2021)
- [TranAD: Deep Transformer Networks for Anomaly Detection in Multivariate Time Series Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.07284/) (2022)
- [Improving Position Encoding of Transformers for Multivariate Time Series Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.16642/) (2023)
- [Dual Aspect Self-Attention based on Transformer for Remaining Useful Life Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.15842/) (2021)
- [Large-scale End-of-Life Prediction of Hard Disks in Distributed Datacenters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08955/) (2023)
- [Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Hard Disk Drives using Bidirectional LSTM Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.05351/) (2021)
- [Feature Selective Transformer for Semantic Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.14124/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Adversarial Attacks and Defenses in Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting for Smart and Connected Infrastructures](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.14875/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Hard Disk Drive (HDD) failures in datacenters are costly - from catastrophic data loss to a question of goodwill, stakeholders want to avoid it like the plague. An important tool in proactively monitoring against HDD failure is timely estimation of the Remaining Useful Life (RUL). To this end, the Self-Monitoring, Analysis and Reporting Technology employed within HDDs (S.M.A.R.T.) provide critical logs for long-term maintenance of the security and dependability of these essential data storage devices. Data-driven predictive models in the past have used these S.M.A.R.T. logs and CNN/RNN based architectures heavily. However, they have suffered significantly in providing a confidence interval around the predicted RUL values as well as in processing very long sequences of logs. In addition, some of these approaches, such as those based on LSTMs, are inherently slow to train and have tedious feature engineering overheads. To overcome these challenges, in this work we propose a novel transformer architecture - a Temporal-fusion Bi-encoder Self-attention Transformer (TFBEST) for predicting failures in hard-drives. It is an encoder-decoder based deep learning technique that enhances the context gained from understanding health statistics sequences and predicts a sequence of the number of days remaining before a disk potentially fails. In this paper, we also provide a novel confidence margin statistic that can help manufacturers replace a hard-drive within a time frame. Experiments on Seagate HDD data show that our method significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art RUL prediction methods during testing over the exhaustive 10-year data from Backblaze (2013-present). Although validated on HDD failure prediction, the TFBEST architecture is well-suited for other prognostics applications and may be adapted for allied regression problems.