# Encoding Seasonal Climate Predictions for Demand Forecasting with Modular Neural Network

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.02248 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.02248/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 12 of its 44 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 Sep 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [An Empirical Evaluation of Generic Convolutional and Recurrent Networks for Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.01271/) (2018)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.09363/) (2019)
- [Enhancing the Locality and Breaking the Memory Bottleneck of Transformer on Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.00235/) (2019)
- [Time Series Forecasting With Deep Learning: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.13408/) (2020)
- [High-Dimensional Multivariate Forecasting with Low-Rank Gaussian Copula Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.03002/) (2019)
- [Deep Transformer Models for Time Series Forecasting: The Influenza Prevalence Case](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.08317/) (2020)
- [Temporal Pattern Attention for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.04206/) (2018)
- [Conditional Time Series Forecasting with Convolutional Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04691/) (2017)
- [Multivariate LSTM-FCNs for Time Series Classification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1801.04503/) (2018)
- [Temporal Latent Auto-Encoder: A Method for Probabilistic Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.10460/) (2021)
- [EA-LSTM: Evolutionary Attention-based LSTM for Time Series Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.03760/) (2018)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Current time-series forecasting problems use short-term weather attributes as exogenous inputs. However, in specific time-series forecasting solutions (e.g., demand prediction in the supply chain), seasonal climate predictions are crucial to improve its resilience. Representing mid to long-term seasonal climate forecasts is challenging as seasonal climate predictions are uncertain, and encoding spatio-temporal relationship of climate forecasts with demand is complex. We propose a novel modeling framework that efficiently encodes seasonal climate predictions to provide robust and reliable time-series forecasting for supply chain functions. The encoding framework enables effective learning of latent representations -- be it uncertain seasonal climate prediction or other time-series data (e.g., buyer patterns) -- via a modular neural network architecture. Our extensive experiments indicate that learning such representations to model seasonal climate forecast results in an error reduction of approximately 13% to 17% across multiple real-world data sets compared to existing demand forecasting methods.