# Benchmarking Autoregressive Conditional Diffusion Models for Turbulent Flow Simulation

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.01745 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.01745/

## Key facts

- Cited by 71 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Flow matching, time series and science, one of 14 directions in Diffusion models.
- Builds on 65 of its 91 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 4 Sep 2023.

## Placed in

- Diffusion models / [Flow matching, time series and science](https://mlsanity.com/diffusion/flow-matching-time-series-and-science/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 65)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11239/) (2020)
- [PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Library](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1912.01703/) (2019)
- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [High-Resolution Image Synthesis with Latent Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2112.10752/) (2021)
- [Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.02502/) (2020)
- [Score-Based Generative Modeling through Stochastic Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.13456/) (2020)
- [Diffusion Models Beat GANs on Image Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.05233/) (2021)
- [Deep Unsupervised Learning using Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1503.03585/) (2015)
- [Photorealistic Text-to-Image Diffusion Models with Deep Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.11487/) (2022)
- [Scalable Diffusion Models with Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.09748/) (2022)
- [Improved Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.09672/) (2021)
- [A ConvNet for the 2020s](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.03545/) (2022)
- [Elucidating the Design Space of Diffusion-Based Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.00364/) (2022)
- [Fourier Neural Operator for Parametric Partial Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.08895/) (2020)
- [Perceptual Losses for Real-Time Style Transfer and Super-Resolution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.08155/) (2016)
- [Video Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.03458/) (2022)
- [Group Normalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.08494/) (2018)
- [Align your Latents: High-Resolution Video Synthesis with Latent Diffusion Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.08818/) (2023)
- [Diffusion Models: A Comprehensive Survey of Methods and Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.00796/) (2022)
- [Denoising Diffusion Restoration Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11793/) (2022)
- [Learning to Simulate Complex Physics with Graph Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.09405/) (2020)
- [Learning Mesh-Based Simulation with Graph Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.03409/) (2020)
- [Score-based Generative Modeling in Latent Space](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.05931/) (2021)
- [Solving Inverse Problems in Medical Imaging with Score-Based Generative Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.08005/) (2021)
- [Deep learning for universal linear embeddings of nonlinear dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1712.09707/) (2017)
- [Machine learning accelerated computational fluid dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.01010/) (2021)
- [Diffusion Autoencoders: Toward a Meaningful and Decodable Representation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.15640/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 71)

- [The Well: a Large-Scale Collection of Diverse Physics Simulations for Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.00568/) (2024)
- [Integrating Neural Operators with Diffusion Models Improves Spectral Representation in Turbulence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.08477/) (2024)
- [PDE-Transformer: Efficient and Versatile Transformers for Physics Simulations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.24717/) (2025)
- [Continuous Ensemble Weather Forecasting with Diffusion models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.05431/) (2024)
- [Wavelet Diffusion Neural Operator](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.04833/) (2024)
- [Generative Latent Neural PDE Solver using Flow Matching](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.22600/) (2025)
- [Differentiability in Unrolled Training of Neural Physics Simulators on Transient Dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.12971/) (2024)
- [Probabilistic Emulation of a Global Climate Model with Spherical DYffusion](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.14798/) (2024)
- [Thermalizer: Stable autoregressive neural emulation of spatiotemporal chaos](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.18731/) (2025)
- [DISCO: learning to DISCover an evolution Operator for multi-physics-agnostic prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.19496/) (2025)
- [Lost in Latent Space: An Empirical Study of Latent Diffusion Models for Physics Emulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.02608/) (2025)
- [Zero-Shot Uncertainty Quantification using Diffusion Probabilistic Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.04718/) (2024)
- [Elucidated Rolling Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Forecasting of Complex Dynamics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.20024/) (2025)
- [Elucidating the Design Choice of Probability Paths in Flow Matching for Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.03229/) (2024)
- [Diffusion-Based Hierarchical Graph Neural Networks for Simulating Nonlinear Solid Mechanics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.06045/) (2025)
- [Predicting Change, Not States: An Alternate Framework for Neural PDE Surrogates](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.13074/) (2024)
- [FLEX: A Backbone for Diffusion-Based Modeling of Spatio-temporal Physical Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.17351/) (2025)
- [Probabilistic Retrofitting of Learned Simulators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.01949/) (2026)
- [Geometric and Physical Constraints Synergistically Enhance Neural PDE Surrogates](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.05513/) (2025)
- [BARNN: A Bayesian Autoregressive and Recurrent Neural Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.18665/) (2025)
- [FD-Bench: A Modular and Fair Benchmark for Data-driven Fluid Simulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.20349/) (2025)
- [Predicting partially observable dynamical systems via diffusion models with a multiscale inference scheme](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.19390/) (2025)
- [Particle-Guided Diffusion Models for Partial Differential Equations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.23262/) (2026)
- [FlowRefiner: Flow Matching-Based Iterative Refinement for 3D Turbulent Flow Simulation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.17149/) (2026)
- [Lazy Diffusion: Mitigating spectral collapse in generative diffusion-based stable autoregressive emulation of turbulent flows](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.09572/) (2025)
- [Flow Learners for PDEs: Toward a Physics-to-Physics Paradigm for Scientific Computing](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.07366/) (2026)
- [When do World Models Successfully Learn Dynamical Systems?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.04898/) (2025)
- [PRISMA: Improving the Accuracy-Latency Frontier of Diffusion-based PDE Solvers Using Physics-Informed Spectral Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.01370/) (2025)
- [Adaptive Diffusion Posterior Sampling for Data and Model Fusion of Complex Nonlinear Dynamical Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2603.12635/) (2026)
- [Controlling Transient Amplification Improves Long-horizon Rollouts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.08856/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Simulating turbulent flows is crucial for a wide range of applications, and machine learning-based solvers are gaining increasing relevance. However, achieving temporal stability when generalizing to longer rollout horizons remains a persistent challenge for learned PDE solvers. In this work, we analyze if fully data-driven fluid solvers that utilize an autoregressive rollout based on conditional diffusion models are a viable option to address this challenge. We investigate accuracy, posterior sampling, spectral behavior, and temporal stability, while requiring that methods generalize to flow parameters beyond the training regime. To quantitatively and qualitatively benchmark the performance of various flow prediction approaches, three challenging 2D scenarios including incompressible and transonic flows, as well as isotropic turbulence are employed. We find that even simple diffusion-based approaches can outperform multiple established flow prediction methods in terms of accuracy and temporal stability, while being on par with state-of-the-art stabilization techniques like unrolling at training time. Such traditional architectures are superior in terms of inference speed, however, the probabilistic nature of diffusion approaches allows for inferring multiple predictions that align with the statistics of the underlying physics. Overall, our benchmark contains three carefully chosen data sets that are suitable for probabilistic evaluation alongside various established flow prediction architectures.