# GRU-D-Weibull: A Novel Real-Time Individualized Endpoint Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.07452 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.07452/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 6 of its 47 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 14 Aug 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 6 of 6)

- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Recurrent Neural Networks for Multivariate Time Series with Missing Values](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.01865/) (2016)
- [DeepSurv: Personalized Treatment Recommender System Using A Cox Proportional Hazards Deep Neural Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.00931/) (2016)
- [A Scalable Discrete-Time Survival Model for Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.00917/) (2018)
- [Survival regression with accelerated failure time model in XGBoost](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.04920/) (2020)
- [Discrimination, calibration, and point estimate accuracy of GRU-D-Weibull architecture for real-time individualized endpoint prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.09606/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate prediction models for individual-level endpoints and time-to-endpoints are crucial in clinical practice. In this study, we propose a novel approach, GRU-D-Weibull, which combines gated recurrent units with decay (GRU-D) to model the Weibull distribution. Our method enables real-time individualized endpoint prediction and population-level risk management. Using a cohort of 6,879 patients with stage 4 chronic kidney disease (CKD4), we evaluated the performance of GRU-D-Weibull in endpoint prediction. The C-index of GRU-D-Weibull was ~0.7 at the index date and increased to ~0.77 after 4.3 years of follow-up, similar to random survival forest. Our approach achieved an absolute L1-loss of ~1.1 years (SD 0.95) at the CKD4 index date and a minimum of ~0.45 years (SD0.3) at 4 years of follow-up, outperforming competing methods significantly. GRU-D-Weibull consistently constrained the predicted survival probability at the time of an event within a smaller and more fixed range compared to other models throughout the follow-up period. We observed significant correlations between the error in point estimates and missing proportions of input features at the index date (correlations from ~0.1 to ~0.3), which diminished within 1 year as more data became available. By post-training recalibration, we successfully aligned the predicted and observed survival probabilities across multiple prediction horizons at different time points during follow-up. Our findings demonstrate the considerable potential of GRU-D-Weibull as the next-generation architecture for endpoint risk management, capable of generating various endpoint estimates for real-time monitoring using clinical data.