# Applied metamodelling for ATM performance simulations

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.03404 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.03404/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 7 of its 50 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 7 Aug 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 7 of 7)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [GPyTorch: Blackbox Matrix-Matrix Gaussian Process Inference with GPU Acceleration](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.11165/) (2018)
- [Active Learning: Problem Settings and Recent Developments](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.04225/) (2020)
- [Active Learning for Gaussian Process Considering Uncertainties with Application to Shape Control of Composite Fuselage](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.10931/) (2020)
- [Nonstationary Gaussian Process Surrogates](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.19242/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

The use of Air traffic management (ATM) simulators for planing and operations can be challenging due to their modelling complexity. This paper presents XALM (eXplainable Active Learning Metamodel), a three-step framework integrating active learning and SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values into simulation metamodels for supporting ATM decision-making. XALM efficiently uncovers hidden relationships among input and output variables in ATM simulators, those usually of interest in policy analysis. Our experiments show XALM's predictive performance comparable to the XGBoost metamodel with fewer simulations. Additionally, XALM exhibits superior explanatory capabilities compared to non-active learning metamodels. Using the `Mercury' (flight and passenger) ATM simulator, XALM is applied to a real-world scenario in Paris Charles de Gaulle airport, extending an arrival manager's range and scope by analysing six variables. This case study illustrates XALM's effectiveness in enhancing simulation interpretability and understanding variable interactions. By addressing computational challenges and improving explainability, XALM complements traditional simulation-based analyses. Lastly, we discuss two practical approaches for reducing the computational burden of the metamodelling further: we introduce a stopping criterion for active learning based on the inherent uncertainty of the metamodel, and we show how the simulations used for the metamodel can be reused across key performance indicators, thus decreasing the overall number of simulations needed.