# A criterion for Artificial General Intelligence: hypothetic-deductive reasoning, tested on ChatGPT

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.02950 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.02950/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Placed in Reasoning benchmarks and evaluation, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning.
- Builds on 18 of its 45 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 Aug 2023.

## Placed in

- LLM reasoning / [Reasoning benchmarks and evaluation](https://mlsanity.com/lr/reasoning-benchmarks-and-evaluation/)

## Builds on (most cited first, 18 of 18)

- [Chain-of-Thought Prompting Elicits Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.11903/) (2022)
- [Large Language Models are Zero-Shot Reasoners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.11916/) (2022)
- [Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.12712/) (2023)
- [Beyond the Imitation Game: Quantifying and extrapolating the capabilities of language models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.04615/) (2022)
- [Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI): Concepts, Taxonomies, Opportunities and Challenges toward Responsible AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.10045/) (2019)
- [Towards A Rigorous Science of Interpretable Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1702.08608/) (2017)
- [A Multitask, Multilingual, Multimodal Evaluation of ChatGPT on Reasoning, Hallucination, and Interactivity](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.04023/) (2023)
- [Towards Reasoning in Large Language Models: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.10403/) (2022)
- [Explaining Explanations: An Overview of Interpretability of Machine Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1806.00069/) (2018)
- [Mathematical Capabilities of ChatGPT](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.13867/) (2023)
- [Evaluating the Logical Reasoning Ability of ChatGPT and GPT-4](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.03439/) (2023)
- [A Categorical Archive of ChatGPT Failures](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.03494/) (2023)
- [Evaluating Large Language Models on a Highly-specialized Topic, Radiation Oncology Physics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.01938/) (2023)
- [Causal-Discovery Performance of ChatGPT in the context of Neuropathic Pain Diagnosis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.13819/) (2023)
- [When do you need Chain-of-Thought Prompting for ChatGPT?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.03262/) (2023)
- [Does ChatGPT have Theory of Mind?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14020/) (2023)
- [Advances in apparent conceptual physics reasoning in GPT-4](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.17012/) (2023)
- [AI Insights into Theoretical Physics and the Swampland Program: A Journey Through the Cosmos with ChatGPT](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.08155/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Assessing Logical Puzzle Solving in Large Language Models: Insights from a Minesweeper Case Study](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.07387/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

We argue that a key reasoning skill that any advanced AI, say GPT-4, should master in order to qualify as 'thinking machine', or AGI, is hypothetic-deductive reasoning. Problem-solving or question-answering can quite generally be construed as involving two steps: hypothesizing that a certain set of hypotheses T applies to the problem or question at hand, and deducing the solution or answer from T - hence the term hypothetic-deductive reasoning. An elementary proxy of hypothetic-deductive reasoning is causal reasoning. We propose simple tests for both types of reasoning, and apply them to ChatGPT. Our study shows that, at present, the chatbot has a limited capacity for either type of reasoning, as soon as the problems considered are somewhat complex. However, we submit that if an AI would be capable of this type of reasoning in a sufficiently wide range of contexts, it would be an AGI.