# Explainable Deep Learning-based Solar Flare Prediction with post hoc Attention for Operational Forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.02682 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.02682/

## Key facts

- Cited by 7 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 13 of its 34 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 4 Aug 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 13 of 13)

- [Grad-CAM: Visual Explanations from Deep Networks via Gradient-based Localization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02391/) (2016)
- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- [Axiomatic Attribution for Deep Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.01365/) (2017)
- [Learning Important Features Through Propagating Activation Differences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.02685/) (2017)
- [Striving for Simplicity: The All Convolutional Net](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6806/) (2014)
- [Grad-CAM++: Improved Visual Explanations for Deep Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.11063/) (2017)
- [One weird trick for parallelizing convolutional neural networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1404.5997/) (2014)
- [Robust Explainability: A Tutorial on Gradient-Based Attribution Methods for Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.11400/) (2021)
- [How to Train Your Flare Prediction Model: Revisiting Robust Sampling of Rare Events](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.07542/) (2021)
- [Towards Coupling Full-disk and Active Region-based Flare Prediction for Operational Space Weather Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.07406/) (2022)
- [Predicting Solar Flares Using CNN and LSTM on Two Solar Cycles of Active Region Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.03710/) (2022)
- [All-Clear Flare Prediction Using Interval-based Time Series Classifiers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.01202/) (2021)
- [Explaining Full-disk Deep Learning Model for Solar Flare Prediction using Attribution Methods](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.15878/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 7 of 7)

- [Towards Interpretable Solar Flare Prediction with Attention-based Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.04558/) (2023)
- [Exploring Deep Learning for Full-disk Solar Flare Prediction with Empirical Insights from Guided Grad-CAM Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.15712/) (2023)
- [Predicting partially observable dynamical systems via diffusion models with a multiscale inference scheme](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.19390/) (2025)
- [Unveiling the Potential of Deep Learning Models for Solar Flare Prediction in Near-Limb Regions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.14483/) (2023)
- [Deep Computer Vision for Solar Physics Big Data: Opportunities and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.04850/) (2024)
- [Explainable AI in Deep Learning-Based Prediction of Solar Storms](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.16543/) (2025)
- [Ordinal Encoding as a Regularizer in Binary Loss for Solar Flare Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.04063/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This paper presents a post hoc analysis of a deep learning-based full-disk solar flare prediction model. We used hourly full-disk line-of-sight magnetogram images and selected binary prediction mode to predict the occurrence of ≥M1.0-class flares within 24 hours. We leveraged custom data augmentation and sample weighting to counter the inherent class-imbalance problem and used true skill statistic and Heidke skill score as evaluation metrics. Recent advancements in gradient-based attention methods allow us to interpret models by sending gradient signals to assign the burden of the decision on the input features. We interpret our model using three post hoc attention methods: (i) Guided Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping, (ii) Deep Shapley Additive Explanations, and (iii) Integrated Gradients. Our analysis shows that full-disk predictions of solar flares align with characteristics related to the active regions. The key findings of this study are: (1) We demonstrate that our full disk model can tangibly locate and predict near-limb solar flares, which is a critical feature for operational flare forecasting, (2) Our candidate model achieves an average TSS=0.51±0.05 and HSS=0.38±0.08, and (3) Our evaluation suggests that these models can learn conspicuous features corresponding to active regions from full-disk magnetograms.