# Likelihood-ratio-based confidence intervals for neural networks

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.02221 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.02221/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 21 of its 45 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 4 Aug 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 21 of 21)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [Explaining and Harnessing Adversarial Examples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6572/) (2014)
- [mixup: Beyond Empirical Risk Minimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.09412/) (2017)
- [XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting System](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.02754/) (2016)
- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [A Simple Unified Framework for Detecting Out-of-Distribution Samples and Adversarial Attacks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.03888/) (2018)
- [Fast and Accurate Deep Network Learning by Exponential Linear Units (ELUs)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.07289/) (2015)
- [A Review of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning: Techniques, Applications and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.06225/) (2020)
- [A Survey of Uncertainty in Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.03342/) (2021)
- [On Lazy Training in Differentiable Programming](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.07956/) (2018)
- [Probabilistic Backpropagation for Scalable Learning of Bayesian Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1502.05336/) (2015)
- [Concrete Dropout](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07832/) (2017)
- [A Simple Fix to Mahalanobis Distance for Improving Near-OOD Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.09022/) (2021)
- [Hyperparameter Ensembles for Robustness and Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.13570/) (2020)
- [Uncertainty Estimation by Fisher Information-based Evidential Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.02045/) (2023)
- [Maximizing Overall Diversity for Improved Uncertainty Estimates in Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1906.07380/) (2019)
- [The harm of class imbalance corrections for risk prediction models: illustration and simulation using logistic regression](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.09101/) (2022)
- [Ensembles for Uncertainty Estimation: Benefits of Prior Functions and Bootstrapping](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.03633/) (2022)
- [Confident Neural Network Regression with Bootstrapped Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.10903/) (2022)
- [The Implicit Delta Method](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.06457/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Supervised Learning of Random Neural Architectures Structured by Latent Random Fields on Compact Boundaryless Multiply-Connected Manifolds](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.10407/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This paper introduces a first implementation of a novel likelihood-ratio-based approach for constructing confidence intervals for neural networks. Our method, called DeepLR, offers several qualitative advantages: most notably, the ability to construct asymmetric intervals that expand in regions with a limited amount of data, and the inherent incorporation of factors such as the amount of training time, network architecture, and regularization techniques. While acknowledging that the current implementation of the method is prohibitively expensive for many deep-learning applications, the high cost may already be justified in specific fields like medical predictions or astrophysics, where a reliable uncertainty estimate for a single prediction is essential. This work highlights the significant potential of a likelihood-ratio-based uncertainty estimate and establishes a promising avenue for future research.