# Counterfactual Graph Transformer for Traffic Flow Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.00391 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.00391/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 23 of its 39 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 1 Aug 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 23 of 23)

- [Graph Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.10903/) (2017)
- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks: A Deep Learning Framework for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.04875/) (2017)
- [Counterfactual Explanations without Opening the Black Box: Automated Decisions and the GDPR](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.00399/) (2017)
- [Counterfactual Fairness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.06856/) (2017)
- [GNNExplainer: Generating Explanations for Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.03894/) (2019)
- [Connecting the Dots: Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11650/) (2020)
- [Parameterized Explainer for Graph Neural Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.04573/) (2020)
- [T-GCN: A Temporal Graph ConvolutionalNetwork for Traffic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.05320/) (2018)
- [Spatial-Temporal Transformer Networks for Traffic Flow Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.02908/) (2020)
- [Counterfactual Explanations and Algorithmic Recourses for Machine Learning: A Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.10596/) (2020)
- [Explainability Techniques for Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.13686/) (2019)
- [Dynamic Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Prediction: Benchmark and Solution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.14917/) (2021)
- [PDFormer: Propagation Delay-Aware Dynamic Long-Range Transformer for Traffic Flow Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.07945/) (2023)
- [CF-GNNExplainer: Counterfactual Explanations for Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.03322/) (2021)
- [Learning and Evaluating Graph Neural Network Explanations based on Counterfactual and Factual Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.08816/) (2022)
- [Robust Counterfactual Explanations on Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.04086/) (2021)
- [GraphSVX: Shapley Value Explanations for Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.10482/) (2021)
- [A3T-GCN: Attention Temporal Graph Convolutional Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.11583/) (2020)
- [Global Counterfactual Explainer for Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.11695/) (2022)
- [Learning dynamic and hierarchical traffic spatiotemporal features with Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.05163/) (2021)
- [Should Graph Convolution Trust Neighbors? A Simple Causal Inference Method](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11797/) (2020)
- [Counterfactual Learning on Graphs: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.01391/) (2023)
- [Adaptive Graph Spatial-Temporal Transformer Network for Traffic Flow Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2207.05064/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Counterfactual Explanations for Deep Learning-Based Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.00456/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Traffic flow prediction (TFP) is a fundamental problem of the Intelligent Transportation System (ITS), as it models the latent spatial-temporal dependency of traffic flow for potential congestion prediction. Recent graph-based models with multiple kinds of attention mechanisms have achieved promising performance. However, existing methods for traffic flow prediction tend to inherit the bias pattern from the dataset and lack interpretability. To this end, we propose a Counterfactual Graph Transformer (CGT) model with an instance-level explainer (e.g., finding the important subgraphs) specifically designed for TFP. We design a perturbation mask generator over input sensor features at the time dimension and the graph structure on the graph transformer module to obtain spatial and temporal counterfactual explanations. By searching the optimal perturbation masks on the input data feature and graph structures, we can obtain the concise and dominant data or graph edge links for the subsequent TFP task. After re-training the utilized graph transformer model after counterfactual perturbation, we can obtain improved and interpretable traffic flow prediction. Extensive results on three real-world public datasets show that CGT can produce reliable explanations and is promising for traffic flow prediction.