# Explaining Full-disk Deep Learning Model for Solar Flare Prediction using Attribution Methods

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.15878 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.15878/

## Key facts

- Cited by 12 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 16 of its 44 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Jul 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 16 of 16)

- [Very Deep Convolutional Networks for Large-Scale Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.1556/) (2014)
- [Grad-CAM: Visual Explanations from Deep Networks via Gradient-based Localization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02391/) (2016)
- [Densely Connected Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1608.06993/) (2016)
- [A Unified Approach to Interpreting Model Predictions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.07874/) (2017)
- [Going Deeper with Convolutions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.4842/) (2014)
- [Axiomatic Attribution for Deep Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.01365/) (2017)
- [Learning Important Features Through Propagating Activation Differences](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.02685/) (2017)
- [Striving for Simplicity: The All Convolutional Net](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6806/) (2014)
- [Grad-CAM++: Improved Visual Explanations for Deep Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.11063/) (2017)
- [One weird trick for parallelizing convolutional neural networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1404.5997/) (2014)
- [Robust Explainability: A Tutorial on Gradient-Based Attribution Methods for Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2107.11400/) (2021)
- [How to Train Your Flare Prediction Model: Revisiting Robust Sampling of Rare Events](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.07542/) (2021)
- [Towards Coupling Full-disk and Active Region-based Flare Prediction for Operational Space Weather Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2209.07406/) (2022)
- [Predicting Solar Flares Using CNN and LSTM on Two Solar Cycles of Active Region Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.03710/) (2022)
- [All-Clear Flare Prediction Using Interval-based Time Series Classifiers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.01202/) (2021)
- [Challenges with Extreme Class-Imbalance and Temporal Coherence: A Study on Solar Flare Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.09061/) (2019)

## Built on by (most cited first, 12 of 12)

- [Explainable Deep Learning-based Solar Flare Prediction with post hoc Attention for Operational Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.02682/) (2023)
- [Towards Interpretable Solar Flare Prediction with Attention-based Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.04558/) (2023)
- [Exploring Deep Learning for Full-disk Solar Flare Prediction with Empirical Insights from Guided Grad-CAM Explanations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.15712/) (2023)
- [Surya: Foundation Model for Heliophysics](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2508.14112/) (2025)
- [Advancing Solar Flare Prediction using Deep Learning with Active Region Patches](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.11054/) (2024)
- [Embedding Ordinality to Binary Loss Function for Improving Solar Flare Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.11768/) (2024)
- [Unveiling the Potential of Deep Learning Models for Solar Flare Prediction in Near-Limb Regions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.14483/) (2023)
- [Towards Hybrid Embedded Feature Selection and Classification Approach with Slim-TSF](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.04542/) (2024)
- [Deep Computer Vision for Solar Physics Big Data: Opportunities and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.04850/) (2024)
- [Ordinal Encoding as a Regularizer in Binary Loss for Solar Flare Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2510.04063/) (2025)
- [Enhancing Explainability in Solar Energetic Particle Event Prediction: A Global Feature Mapping Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.09475/) (2025)
- [Contrastive Heliophysical Image Pretraining for Solar Dynamics Observatory Records](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.22958/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

This paper contributes to the growing body of research on deep learning methods for solar flare prediction, primarily focusing on highly overlooked near-limb flares and utilizing the attribution methods to provide a post hoc qualitative explanation of the model's predictions. We present a solar flare prediction model, which is trained using hourly full-disk line-of-sight magnetogram images and employs a binary prediction mode to forecast ≥M-class flares that may occur within the following 24-hour period. To address the class imbalance, we employ a fusion of data augmentation and class weighting techniques; and evaluate the overall performance of our model using the true skill statistic (TSS) and Heidke skill score (HSS). Moreover, we applied three attribution methods, namely Guided Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping, Integrated Gradients, and Deep Shapley Additive Explanations, to interpret and cross-validate our model's predictions with the explanations. Our analysis revealed that full-disk prediction of solar flares aligns with characteristics related to active regions (ARs). In particular, the key findings of this study are: (1) our deep learning models achieved an average TSS=0.51 and HSS=0.35, and the results further demonstrate a competent capability to predict near-limb solar flares and (2) the qualitative analysis of the model explanation indicates that our model identifies and uses features associated with ARs in central and near-limb locations from full-disk magnetograms to make corresponding predictions. In other words, our models learn the shape and texture-based characteristics of flaring ARs even at near-limb areas, which is a novel and critical capability with significant implications for operational forecasting.