# Unbiased Delayed Feedback Label Correction for Conversion Rate Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.12756 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.12756/

## Key facts

- Cited by 10 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 24 Jul 2023.

## Built on by (most cited first, 10 of 10)

- [Popularity-Aware Alignment and Contrast for Mitigating Popularity Bias](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.20718/) (2024)
- [Collaborative-Enhanced Prediction of Spending on Newly Downloaded Mobile Games under Consumption Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.08301/) (2024)
- [Modeling Cascaded Delay Feedback for Online Net Conversion Rate Prediction: Benchmark, Insights and Solutions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.19965/) (2026)
- [Delayed Feedback Modeling with Influence Functions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2502.01669/) (2025)
- [When SparseMoE Meets Noisy Interactions: An Ensemble View on Denoising Recommendation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.12730/) (2024)
- [Conversion rate prediction in online advertising: modeling techniques, performance evaluation and future directions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.01171/) (2025)
- [Follow the TRACE: Exploiting Post-Click Trajectories for Online Delayed Conversion Rate Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2604.23197/) (2026)
- [TWICE: Two-Clock, Two-Window Learning for Long-Horizon Conversion Prediction in Online Advertising](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2607.25404/) (2026)
- [Multi-Objective Ranking for Live-Streaming: Balancing Fresh and Delayed Signals with Segment-Aware Targeting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2608.04455/) (2026)
- [DMRL: Document-Mediated Reinforcement Learning for Skill Optimization in Advertising Recommendation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2609.02170/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Conversion rate prediction is critical to many online applications such as digital display advertising. To capture dynamic data distribution, industrial systems often require retraining models on recent data daily or weekly. However, the delay of conversion behavior usually leads to incorrect labeling, which is called delayed feedback problem. Existing work may fail to introduce the correct information about false negative samples due to data sparsity and dynamic data distribution. To directly introduce the correct feedback label information, we propose an Unbiased delayed feedback Label Correction framework (ULC), which uses an auxiliary model to correct labels for observed negative feedback samples. Firstly, we theoretically prove that the label-corrected loss is an unbiased estimate of the oracle loss using true labels. Then, as there are no ready training data for label correction, counterfactual labeling is used to construct artificial training data. Furthermore, since counterfactual labeling utilizes only partial training data, we design an embedding-based alternative training method to enhance performance. Comparative experiments on both public and private datasets and detailed analyses show that our proposed approach effectively alleviates the delayed feedback problem and consistently outperforms the previous state-of-the-art methods.