# Characterising Decision Theories with Mechanised Causal Graphs

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.10987 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.10987/

## Key facts

- Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 8 of its 32 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 20 Jul 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [Scalable agent alignment via reward modeling: a research direction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1811.07871/) (2018)
- [AI safety via debate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.00899/) (2018)
- [Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2206.13353/) (2022)
- [Agent Incentives: A Causal Perspective](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.01685/) (2021)
- [Hidden Incentives for Auto-Induced Distributional Shift](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.09153/) (2020)
- [Discovering Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.08345/) (2022)
- [Reasoning about Causality in Games](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.02324/) (2023)
- [Functional Decision Theory: A New Theory of Instrumental Rationality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.05060/) (2017)

## Built on by (most cited first, 3 of 3)

- [Measuring Goal-Directedness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.04758/) (2024)
- [Attaining Human`s Desirable Outcomes in Human-AI Interaction via Structural Causal Games](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.16588/) (2024)
- [A causal modeling perspective on decision theory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2606.29911/) (2026)

## Abstract (arXiv)

How should my own decisions affect my beliefs about the outcomes I expect to achieve? If taking a certain action makes me view myself as a certain type of person, it might affect how I think others view me, and how I view others who are similar to me. This can influence my expected utility calculations and change which action I perceive to be best. Whether and how it should is subject to debate, with contenders for how to think about it including evidential decision theory, causal decision theory, and functional decision theory. In this paper, we show that mechanised causal models can be used to characterise and differentiate the most important decision theories, and generate a taxonomy of different decision theories.