# Newell's theory based feature transformations for spatio-temporal traffic prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.05949 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.05949/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 11 of its 53 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 12 Jul 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 11 of 11)

- [A Comprehensive Survey on Transfer Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.02685/) (2019)
- [Deep Spatio-Temporal Residual Networks for Citywide Crowd Flows Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.00081/) (2016)
- [Deep Convolutional Networks on Graph-Structured Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.05163/) (2015)
- [Deep Multi-View Spatial-Temporal Network for Taxi Demand Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.08714/) (2018)
- [Traffic Graph Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network: A Deep Learning Framework for Network-Scale Traffic Learning and Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.07007/) (2018)
- [Revisiting Spatial-Temporal Similarity: A Deep Learning Framework for Traffic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.01254/) (2018)
- [A Physics-Informed Deep Learning Paradigm for Traffic State and Fundamental Diagram Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.03142/) (2021)
- [Stacked Bidirectional and Unidirectional LSTM Recurrent Neural Network for Forecasting Network-wide Traffic State with Missing Values](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11627/) (2020)
- [Transfer Learning with Graph Neural Networks for Short-Term Highway Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2004.08038/) (2020)
- [DeepTransport: Learning Spatial-Temporal Dependency for Traffic Condition Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.09585/) (2017)
- [Incorporating Kinematic Wave Theory into a Deep Learning Method for High-Resolution Traffic Speed Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.02906/) (2021)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Deep learning (DL) models for spatio-temporal traffic flow forecasting employ convolutional or graph-convolutional filters along with recurrent neural networks to capture spatial and temporal dependencies in traffic data. These models, such as CNN-LSTM, utilize traffic flows from neighboring detector stations to predict flows at a specific location of interest. However, these models are limited in their ability to capture the broader dynamics of the traffic system, as they primarily learn features specific to the detector configuration and traffic characteristics at the target location. Hence, the transferability of these models to different locations becomes challenging, particularly when data is unavailable at the new location for model training. To address this limitation, we propose a traffic flow physics-based feature transformation for spatio-temporal DL models. This transformation incorporates Newell's uncongested and congested-state estimators of traffic flows at the target locations, enabling the models to learn broader dynamics of the system. Our methodology is empirically validated using traffic data from two different locations. The results demonstrate that the proposed feature transformation improves the models' performance in predicting traffic flows over different prediction horizons, as indicated by better goodness-of-fit statistics. An important advantage of our framework is its ability to be transferred to new locations where data is unavailable. This is achieved by appropriately accounting for spatial dependencies based on station distances and various traffic parameters. In contrast, regular DL models are not easily transferable as their inputs remain fixed. It should be noted that due to data limitations, we were unable to perform spatial sensitivity analysis, which calls for further research using simulated data.