# Distance Preserving Machine Learning for Uncertainty Aware Accelerator Capacitance Predictions

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.02367 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.02367/

## Key facts

- Cited by 1 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 8 of its 26 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 5 Jul 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.02142/) (2015)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04977/) (2017)
- [A Review of Uncertainty Quantification in Deep Learning: Techniques, Applications and Challenges](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2011.06225/) (2020)
- [Simple and Principled Uncertainty Estimation with Deterministic Deep Learning via Distance Awareness](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.10108/) (2020)
- [On Feature Collapse and Deep Kernel Learning for Single Forward Pass Uncertainty](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2102.11409/) (2021)
- [Uncertainty Toolbox: an Open-Source Library for Assessing, Visualizing, and Improving Uncertainty Quantification](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.10254/) (2021)
- [Is MC Dropout Bayesian?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.04286/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 1 of 1)

- [Robust Errant Beam Prognostics with Conditional Modeling for Particle Accelerators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.10040/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Providing accurate uncertainty estimations is essential for producing reliable machine learning models, especially in safety-critical applications such as accelerator systems. Gaussian process models are generally regarded as the gold standard method for this task, but they can struggle with large, high-dimensional datasets. Combining deep neural networks with Gaussian process approximation techniques have shown promising results, but dimensionality reduction through standard deep neural network layers is not guaranteed to maintain the distance information necessary for Gaussian process models. We build on previous work by comparing the use of the singular value decomposition against a spectral-normalized dense layer as a feature extractor for a deep neural Gaussian process approximation model and apply it to a capacitance prediction problem for the High Voltage Converter Modulators in the Oak Ridge Spallation Neutron Source. Our model shows improved distance preservation and predicts in-distribution capacitance values with less than 1% error.