# Sparsity exploitation via discovering graphical models in multi-variate time-series forecasting

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.17090 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.17090/

## Key facts

- No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 23 of its 35 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 29 Jun 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 23 of 23)

- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.02907/) (2016)
- [Learning Phrase Representations using RNN Encoder-Decoder for Statistical Machine Translation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1406.1078/) (2014)
- [Categorical Reparameterization with Gumbel-Softmax](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.01144/) (2016)
- [Convolutional Neural Networks on Graphs with Fast Localized Spectral Filtering](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.09375/) (2016)
- [The Concrete Distribution: A Continuous Relaxation of Discrete Random Variables](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.00712/) (2016)
- [Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolutional Networks: A Deep Learning Framework for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.04875/) (2017)
- [Spectral Networks and Locally Connected Networks on Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1312.6203/) (2013)
- [Modeling Long- and Short-Term Temporal Patterns with Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.07015/) (2017)
- [Enhancing the Locality and Breaking the Memory Bottleneck of Transformer on Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.00235/) (2019)
- [Connecting the Dots: Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.11650/) (2020)
- [Adaptive Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.02842/) (2020)
- [Neural Relational Inference for Interacting Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.04687/) (2018)
- [Spectral Temporal Graph Neural Network for Multivariate Time-series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.07719/) (2021)
- [Structured Sequence Modeling with Graph Convolutional Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.07659/) (2016)
- [Deep Convolutional Networks on Graph-Structured Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.05163/) (2015)
- [Learning Discrete Structures for Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.11960/) (2019)
- [Discrete Graph Structure Learning for Forecasting Multiple Time Series](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.06861/) (2021)
- [Traffic Graph Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network: A Deep Learning Framework for Network-Scale Traffic Learning and Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.07007/) (2018)
- [Temporal Pattern Attention for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.04206/) (2018)
- [Network Inference via the Time-Varying Graphical Lasso](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.01958/) (2017)
- [Regularized Graph Structure Learning with Semantic Knowledge for Multi-variates Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2210.06126/) (2022)
- [Temporal Multiresolution Graph Neural Networks For Epidemic Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.14831/) (2022)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have been widely applied in multi-variate time-series forecasting (MTSF) tasks because of their capability in capturing the correlations among different time-series. These graph-based learning approaches improve the forecasting performance by discovering and understanding the underlying graph structures, which represent the data correlation. When the explicit prior graph structures are not available, most existing works cannot guarantee the sparsity of the generated graphs that make the overall model computational expensive and less interpretable. In this work, we propose a decoupled training method, which includes a graph generating module and a GNNs forecasting module. First, we use Graphical Lasso (or GraphLASSO) to directly exploit the sparsity pattern from data to build graph structures in both static and time-varying cases. Second, we fit these graph structures and the input data into a Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network (GCRN) to train a forecasting model. The experimental results on three real-world datasets show that our novel approach has competitive performance against existing state-of-the-art forecasting algorithms while providing sparse, meaningful and explainable graph structures and reducing training time by approximately 40%. Our PyTorch implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/HySonLab/GraphLASSO