# Deep Learning for Day Forecasts from Sparse Observations

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.06079 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.06079/

## Key facts

- Cited by 72 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 25 of its 37 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 6 Jun 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 25 of 25)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [U-Net: Convolutional Networks for Biomedical Image Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1505.04597/) (2015)
- [Layer Normalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1607.06450/) (2016)
- [Fully Convolutional Networks for Semantic Segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1411.4038/) (2014)
- [Squeeze-and-Excitation Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.01507/) (2017)
- [MobileNets: Efficient Convolutional Neural Networks for Mobile Vision Applications](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04861/) (2017)
- [Gaussian Error Linear Units (GELUs)](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1606.08415/) (2016)
- [FiLM: Visual Reasoning with a General Conditioning Layer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1709.07871/) (2017)
- [Generating Long Sequences with Sparse Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.10509/) (2019)
- [Mixed Precision Training](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.03740/) (2017)
- [Deep Networks with Stochastic Depth](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1603.09382/) (2016)
- [On Layer Normalization in the Transformer Architecture](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.04745/) (2020)
- [FourCastNet: A Global Data-driven High-resolution Weather Model using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.11214/) (2022)
- [Scaling Vision Transformers to 22 Billion Parameters](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.05442/) (2023)
- [MaxViT: Multi-Axis Vision Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.01697/) (2022)
- [ClimaX: A foundation model for weather and climate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.10343/) (2023)
- [WeatherBench: A benchmark dataset for data-driven weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2002.00469/) (2020)
- [GraphCast: Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2212.12794/) (2022)
- [FourCastNet: Accelerating Global High-Resolution Weather Forecasting using Adaptive Fourier Neural Operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2208.05419/) (2022)
- [FengWu: Pushing the Skillful Global Medium-range Weather Forecast beyond 10 Days Lead](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.02948/) (2023)
- [Forecasting Global Weather with Graph Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.07575/) (2022)
- [Pangu-Weather: A 3D High-Resolution Model for Fast and Accurate Global Weather Forecast](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2211.02556/) (2022)
- [MetNet: A Neural Weather Model for Precipitation Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2003.12140/) (2020)
- [GSPMD: General and Scalable Parallelization for ML Computation Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2105.04663/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 72)

- [WeatherBench 2: A benchmark for the next generation of data-driven global weather models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.15560/) (2023)
- [GenCast: Diffusion-based ensemble forecasting for medium-range weather](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.15796/) (2023)
- [Scaling transformer neural networks for skillful and reliable medium-range weather forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.03876/) (2023)
- [DiffDA: a Diffusion Model for Weather-scale Data Assimilation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.05932/) (2024)
- [Training of Physical Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.03372/) (2024)
- [Foundation Models for Weather and Climate Data Understanding: A Comprehensive Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.03014/) (2023)
- [Kilometer-Scale Convection Allowing Model Emulation using Generative Diffusion Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2408.10958/) (2024)
- [Prithvi WxC: Foundation Model for Weather and Climate](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.13598/) (2024)
- [Universal Physics Transformers: A Framework For Efficiently Scaling Neural Operators](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.12365/) (2024)
- [Generative Data Assimilation of Sparse Weather Station Observations at Kilometer Scales](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.16947/) (2024)
- [Generalizing Weather Forecast to Fine-grained Temporal Scales via Physics-AI Hybrid Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.13796/) (2024)
- [AI Foundation Models for Weather and Climate: Applications, Design, and Implementation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.10808/) (2023)
- [Appa: Bending Weather Dynamics with Latent Diffusion Models for Global Data Assimilation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.18720/) (2025)
- [Data driven weather forecasts trained and initialised directly from observations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.15586/) (2024)
- [Validating Deep Learning Weather Forecast Models on Recent High-Impact Extreme Events](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.17652/) (2024)
- [Deep learning for precipitation nowcasting: A survey from the perspective of time series forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.04867/) (2024)
- [Do AI models produce better weather forecasts than physics-based models? A quantitative evaluation case study of Storm Ciar'an](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.02658/) (2023)
- [ZAPBench: A Benchmark for Whole-Brain Activity Prediction in Zebrafish](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.02618/) (2025)
- [Decoupled Diffusion Sampling for Inverse Problems on Function Spaces](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.23280/) (2026)
- [Local Off-Grid Weather Forecasting with Multi-Modal Earth Observation Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.12938/) (2024)
- [WeatherReal: A Benchmark Based on In-Situ Observations for Evaluating Weather Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.09371/) (2024)
- [Earth System Foundation Model (ESFM): A unified framework for heterogeneous data integration and forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2605.00850/) (2026)
- [ArchesWeather: An efficient AI weather forecasting model at 1.5deg resolution](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.14527/) (2024)
- [Deep Bayesian Filter for Bayes-faithful Data Assimilation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.18674/) (2024)
- [OMG-HD: A High-Resolution AI Weather Model for End-to-End Forecasts from Observations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.18239/) (2024)
- [Agentic AI Framework for Cloudburst Prediction and Coordinated Response](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.22767/) (2025)
- [Improving Global Weather and Ocean Wave Forecast with Large Artificial Intelligence Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.16669/) (2024)
- [Forecasting Whole-Brain Neuronal Activity from Volumetric Video](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.00073/) (2025)
- [PEAR: Equal Area Weather Forecasting on the Sphere](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.17720/) (2025)
- [Sim2Real for Environmental Neural Processes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.19932/) (2023)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Deep neural networks offer an alternative paradigm for modeling weather conditions. The ability of neural models to make a prediction in less than a second once the data is available and to do so with very high temporal and spatial resolution, and the ability to learn directly from atmospheric observations, are just some of these models' unique advantages. Neural models trained using atmospheric observations, the highest fidelity and lowest latency data, have to date achieved good performance only up to twelve hours of lead time when compared with state-of-the-art probabilistic Numerical Weather Prediction models and only for the sole variable of precipitation. In this paper, we present MetNet-3 that extends significantly both the lead time range and the variables that an observation based neural model can predict well. MetNet-3 learns from both dense and sparse data sensors and makes predictions up to 24 hours ahead for precipitation, wind, temperature and dew point. MetNet-3 introduces a key densification technique that implicitly captures data assimilation and produces spatially dense forecasts in spite of the network training on extremely sparse targets. MetNet-3 has a high temporal and spatial resolution of, respectively, up to 2 minutes and 1 km as well as a low operational latency. We find that MetNet-3 is able to outperform the best single- and multi-member NWPs such as HRRR and ENS over the CONUS region for up to 24 hours ahead setting a new performance milestone for observation based neural models. MetNet-3 is operational and its forecasts are served in Google Search in conjunction with other models.