# Can Large Language Models Infer Causation from Correlation?

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.05836 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05836/

## Key facts

- Cited by 146 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 21 of its 50 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 9 Jun 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 21 of 21)

- [BERT: Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1810.04805/) (2018)
- [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.14165/) (2020)
- [GPT-4 Technical Report](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2303.08774/) (2023)
- [Training language models to follow instructions with human feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.02155/) (2022)
- [LLaMA: Open and Efficient Foundation Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2302.13971/) (2023)
- [RoBERTa: A Robustly Optimized BERT Pretraining Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.11692/) (2019)
- [BART: Denoising Sequence-to-Sequence Pre-training for Natural Language Generation, Translation, and Comprehension](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.13461/) (2019)
- [DistilBERT, a distilled version of BERT: smaller, faster, cheaper and lighter](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.01108/) (2019)
- [OPT: Open Pre-trained Transformer Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2205.01068/) (2022)
- [A Broad-Coverage Challenge Corpus for Sentence Understanding through Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.05426/) (2017)
- [DeBERTa: Decoding-enhanced BERT with Disentangled Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.03654/) (2020)
- [A large annotated corpus for learning natural language inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1508.05326/) (2015)
- [Is BERT Really Robust? A Strong Baseline for Natural Language Attack on Text Classification and Entailment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.11932/) (2019)
- [Causal Reasoning and Large Language Models: Opening a New Frontier for Causality](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.00050/) (2023)
- [Abductive Commonsense Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1908.05739/) (2019)
- [Counterfactual Story Reasoning and Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1909.04076/) (2019)
- [Pre-trained Summarization Distillation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.13002/) (2020)
- [Reasoning about Goals, Steps, and Temporal Ordering with WikiHow](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2009.07690/) (2020)
- [Causal-Discovery Performance of ChatGPT in the context of Neuropathic Pain Diagnosis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.13819/) (2023)
- [Logical Fallacy Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.13758/) (2022)
- [Multitask Instruction-based Prompting for Fallacy Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2301.09992/) (2023)

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 146)

- [Causal Parrots: Large Language Models May Talk Causality But Are Not Causal](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.13067/) (2023)
- [CLadder: Assessing Causal Reasoning in Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.04350/) (2023)
- [DyVal: Dynamic Evaluation of Large Language Models for Reasoning Tasks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.17167/) (2023)
- [Beyond Accuracy: Evaluating the Reasoning Behavior of Large Language Models -- A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.01869/) (2024)
- [Alice in Wonderland: Simple Tasks Showing Complete Reasoning Breakdown in State-Of-the-Art Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.02061/) (2024)
- [HI-TOM: A Benchmark for Evaluating Higher-Order Theory of Mind Reasoning in Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2310.16755/) (2023)
- [Are LLMs Capable of Data-based Statistical and Causal Reasoning? Benchmarking Advanced Quantitative Reasoning with Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.17644/) (2024)
- [Integrating Large Language Model for Improved Causal Discovery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.16902/) (2023)
- [Unveiling Causal Reasoning in Large Language Models: Reality or Mirage?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2506.21215/) (2025)
- [The Mystery of In-Context Learning: A Comprehensive Survey on Interpretation and Analysis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.00237/) (2023)
- [How Likely Do LLMs with CoT Mimic Human Reasoning?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.16048/) (2024)
- [Foundation Metrics for Evaluating Effectiveness of Healthcare Conversations Powered by Generative AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.12444/) (2023)
- [Integrating Large Language Models in Causal Discovery: A Statistical Causal Approach](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.01454/) (2024)
- [The Essential Role of Causality in Foundation World Models for Embodied AI](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.06665/) (2024)
- [Causal Inference with Large Language Model: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.09822/) (2024)
- [Causal Prompting: Debiasing Large Language Model Prompting based on Front-Door Adjustment](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.02738/) (2024)
- [ALCM: Autonomous LLM-Augmented Causal Discovery Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.01744/) (2024)
- [Take Caution in Using LLMs as Human Surrogates: Scylla Ex Machina](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.19599/) (2024)
- [CRAB: Assessing the Strength of Causal Relationships Between Real-world Events](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.04284/) (2023)
- [Large Language Models and Causal Inference in Collaboration: A Survey](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.09606/) (2024)
- [Large Language Models for Causal Discovery: Current Landscape and Future Directions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.11068/) (2024)
- [Causality for Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.15319/) (2024)
- [Large Language Models are Effective Priors for Causal Graph Discovery](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.13551/) (2024)
- [Cause and Effect: Can Large Language Models Truly Understand Causality?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.18139/) (2024)
- [LLMs Are Prone to Fallacies in Causal Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.12158/) (2024)
- [Prompting Fairness: Integrating Causality to Debias Large Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.08743/) (2024)
- [Do Language Models Exhibit the Same Cognitive Biases in Problem Solving as Human Learners?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2401.18070/) (2024)
- [Agentic AI Needs a Systems Theory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.00237/) (2025)
- [Causal Evaluation of Language Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.00622/) (2024)
- [End-To-End Causal Effect Estimation from Unstructured Natural Language Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.07018/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Causal inference is one of the hallmarks of human intelligence. While the field of CausalNLP has attracted much interest in the recent years, existing causal inference datasets in NLP primarily rely on discovering causality from empirical knowledge (e.g., commonsense knowledge). In this work, we propose the first benchmark dataset to test the pure causal inference skills of large language models (LLMs). Specifically, we formulate a novel task Corr2Cause, which takes a set of correlational statements and determines the causal relationship between the variables. We curate a large-scale dataset of more than 200K samples, on which we evaluate seventeen existing LLMs. Through our experiments, we identify a key shortcoming of LLMs in terms of their causal inference skills, and show that these models achieve almost close to random performance on the task. This shortcoming is somewhat mitigated when we try to re-purpose LLMs for this skill via finetuning, but we find that these models still fail to generalize -- they can only perform causal inference in in-distribution settings when variable names and textual expressions used in the queries are similar to those in the training set, but fail in out-of-distribution settings generated by perturbing these queries. Corr2Cause is a challenging task for LLMs, and would be helpful in guiding future research on improving LLMs' pure reasoning skills and generalizability. Our data is at https://huggingface.co/datasets/causalnlp/corr2cause. Our code is at https://github.com/causalNLP/corr2cause.