# Does Long-Term Series Forecasting Need Complex Attention and Extra Long Inputs?

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.05035 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.05035/

## Key facts

- Cited by 5 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 20 of its 42 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Jun 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 20 of 20)

- [Attention Is All You Need](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.03762/) (2017)
- [Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1412.6980/) (2014)
- [Optuna: A Next-generation Hyperparameter Optimization Framework](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.10902/) (2019)
- [Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07436/) (2020)
- [WaveNet: A Generative Model for Raw Audio](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.03499/) (2016)
- [Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.13008/) (2021)
- [Reformer: The Efficient Transformer](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.04451/) (2020)
- [An Empirical Evaluation of Generic Convolutional and Recurrent Networks for Sequence Modeling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.01271/) (2018)
- [Convolutional LSTM Network: A Machine Learning Approach for Precipitation Nowcasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.04214/) (2015)
- [FEDformer: Frequency Enhanced Decomposed Transformer for Long-term Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2201.12740/) (2022)
- [DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04110/) (2017)
- [Modeling Long- and Short-Term Temporal Patterns with Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.07015/) (2017)
- [Enhancing the Locality and Breaking the Memory Bottleneck of Transformer on Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.00235/) (2019)
- [A Dual-Stage Attention-Based Recurrent Neural Network for Time Series Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.02971/) (2017)
- [Think Globally, Act Locally: A Deep Neural Network Approach to High-Dimensional Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1905.03806/) (2019)
- [Temporal Pattern Attention for Multivariate Time Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1809.04206/) (2018)
- [Conditional Time Series Forecasting with Convolutional Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1703.04691/) (2017)
- [Attend and Diagnose: Clinical Time Series Analysis using Attention Models](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.03905/) (2017)
- [OpenBox: A Generalized Black-box Optimization Service](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.00421/) (2021)
- [Deep Factors with Gaussian Processes for Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.00098/) (2018)

## Built on by (most cited first, 5 of 5)

- [Minusformer: Improving Time Series Forecasting by Progressively Learning Residuals](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.02332/) (2024)
- [Not All Frequencies Are Created Equal:Towards a Dynamic Fusion of Frequencies in Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.12415/) (2024)
- [Act Now: A Novel Online Forecasting Framework for Large-Scale Streaming Data](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.00108/) (2024)
- [DeepBooTS: Dual-Stream Residual Boosting for Drift-Resilient Time-Series Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2511.06893/) (2025)
- [Progressive Supervision via Label Decomposition: An Long-Term and Large-Scale Wireless Traffic Forecasting Method](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2501.06255/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

As Transformer-based models have achieved impressive performance on various time series tasks, Long-Term Series Forecasting (LTSF) tasks have also received extensive attention in recent years. However, due to the inherent computational complexity and long sequences demanding of Transformer-based methods, its application on LTSF tasks still has two major issues that need to be further investigated: 1) Whether the sparse attention mechanism designed by these methods actually reduce the running time on real devices; 2) Whether these models need extra long input sequences to guarantee their performance? The answers given in this paper are negative. Therefore, to better copy with these two issues, we design a lightweight Period-Attention mechanism (Periodformer), which renovates the aggregation of long-term subseries via explicit periodicity and short-term subseries via built-in proximity. Meanwhile, a gating mechanism is embedded into Periodformer to regulate the influence of the attention module on the prediction results. Furthermore, to take full advantage of GPUs for fast hyperparameter optimization (e.g., finding the suitable input length), a Multi-GPU Asynchronous parallel algorithm based on Bayesian Optimization (MABO) is presented. MABO allocates a process to each GPU via a queue mechanism, and then creates multiple trials at a time for asynchronous parallel search, which greatly reduces the search time. Compared with the state-of-the-art methods, the prediction error of Periodformer reduced by 13% and 26% for multivariate and univariate forecasting, respectively. In addition, MABO reduces the average search time by 46% while finding better hyperparameters. As a conclusion, this paper indicates that LTSF may not need complex attention and extra long input sequences. The code has been open sourced on Github.