# Conservative Prediction via Data-Driven Confidence Minimization

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.04974 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.04974/

## Key facts

- Cited by 8 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 55 of its 86 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 8 Jun 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 55)

- [Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.03385/) (2015)
- [An Image is Worth 16x16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.11929/) (2020)
- [Very Deep Convolutional Networks for Large-Scale Image Recognition](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1409.1556/) (2014)
- [Rethinking the Inception Architecture for Computer Vision](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1512.00567/) (2015)
- [On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.04599/) (2017)
- [Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensembles](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1612.01474/) (2016)
- [Wide Residual Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1605.07146/) (2016)
- [Benchmarking Neural Network Robustness to Common Corruptions and Perturbations](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.12261/) (2019)
- [A Baseline for Detecting Misclassified and Out-of-Distribution Examples in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1610.02136/) (2016)
- [Describing Textures in the Wild](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1311.3618/) (2013)
- [Conservative Q-Learning for Offline Reinforcement Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2006.04779/) (2020)
- [Understanding deep learning requires rethinking generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.03530/) (2016)
- [A Simple Unified Framework for Detecting Out-of-Distribution Samples and Adversarial Attacks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1807.03888/) (2018)
- [WILDS: A Benchmark of in-the-Wild Distribution Shifts](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2012.07421/) (2020)
- [LSUN: Construction of a Large-scale Image Dataset using Deep Learning with Humans in the Loop](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1506.03365/) (2015)
- [Enhancing The Reliability of Out-of-distribution Image Detection in Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1706.02690/) (2017)
- [Energy-based Out-of-distribution Detection](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.03759/) (2020)
- [Distributionally Robust Neural Networks for Group Shifts: On the Importance of Regularization for Worst-Case Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.08731/) (2019)
- [Deep Anomaly Detection with Outlier Exposure](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1812.04606/) (2018)
- [Selective Classification for Deep Neural Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1705.08500/) (2017)
- [RobustBench: a standardized adversarial robustness benchmark](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2010.09670/) (2020)
- [Out-of-Distribution Detection with Deep Nearest Neighbors](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2204.06507/) (2022)
- [Towards Open Set Deep Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1511.06233/) (2015)
- [Scaling Out-of-Distribution Detection for Real-World Settings](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.11132/) (2019)
- [Measuring Calibration in Deep Learning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1904.01685/) (2019)
- [ViM: Out-Of-Distribution with Virtual-logit Matching](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2203.10807/) (2022)
- [Training Confidence-calibrated Classifiers for Detecting Out-of-Distribution Samples](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1711.09325/) (2017)
- [Open-Set Recognition: a Good Closed-Set Classifier is All You Need?](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.06207/) (2021)
- [On the Importance of Gradients for Detecting Distributional Shifts in the Wild](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.00218/) (2021)
- [VOS: Learning What You Don't Know by Virtual Outlier Synthesis](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2202.01197/) (2022)

## Built on by (most cited first, 8 of 8)

- [Calibrating Language Models with Adaptive Temperature Scaling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.19817/) (2024)
- [Out-of-Distribution Detection Methods Answer the Wrong Questions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.01831/) (2025)
- [Calibrating Bayesian Learning via Regularization, Confidence Minimization, and Selective Inference](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.11350/) (2024)
- [Selective Learning: Towards Robust Calibration with Dynamic Regularization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.08384/) (2024)
- [On the Fly Neural Style Smoothing for Risk-Averse Domain Generalization](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2307.08551/) (2023)
- [Tumor-anchored deep feature random forests for out-of-distribution detection in lung cancer segmentation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2512.08216/) (2025)
- [C3: Confidence Calibration Model Cascade for Inference-Efficient Cross-Lingual Natural Language Understanding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2402.15991/) (2024)
- [Out-of-Distribution Detection with Overlap Index](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2412.06168/) (2024)

## Abstract (arXiv)

In safety-critical applications of machine learning, it is often desirable for a model to be conservative, abstaining from making predictions on unknown inputs which are not well-represented in the training data. However, detecting unknown examples is challenging, as it is impossible to anticipate all potential inputs at test time. To address this, prior work (Hendrycks et al., 2018) minimizes model confidence on an auxiliary outlier dataset carefully curated to be disjoint from the training distribution. We theoretically analyze the choice of auxiliary dataset for confidence minimization, revealing two actionable insights: (1) if the auxiliary set contains unknown examples similar to those seen at test time, confidence minimization leads to provable detection of unknown test examples, and (2) if the first condition is satisfied, it is unnecessary to filter out known examples for out-of-distribution (OOD) detection. Motivated by these guidelines, we propose the Data-Driven Confidence Minimization (DCM) framework, which minimizes confidence on an uncertainty dataset. We apply DCM to two problem settings in which conservative prediction is paramount -- selective classification and OOD detection -- and provide a realistic way to gather uncertainty data for each setting. In our experiments, DCM consistently outperforms existing selective classification approaches on 4 datasets when tested on unseen distributions and outperforms state-of-the-art OOD detection methods on 12 ID-OOD dataset pairs, reducing FPR (at TPR 95%) by 6.3% and 58.1% on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 compared to Outlier Exposure.