# Leveraging Future Relationship Reasoning for Vehicle Trajectory Prediction

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.14715 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2305.14715/

## Key facts

- Cited by 48 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- Builds on 38 of its 51 references that are in the map.
- First posted on arXiv 24 May 2023.

## Builds on (most cited first, 30 of 38)

- [Semi-Supervised Classification with Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1609.02907/) (2016)
- [nuScenes: A multimodal dataset for autonomous driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1903.11027/) (2019)
- [Argoverse: 3D Tracking and Forecasting with Rich Maps](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.02620/) (2019)
- [Social GAN: Socially Acceptable Trajectories with Generative Adversarial Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1803.10892/) (2018)
- [VectorNet: Encoding HD Maps and Agent Dynamics from Vectorized Representation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2005.04259/) (2020)
- [MultiPath: Multiple Probabilistic Anchor Trajectory Hypotheses for Behavior Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.05449/) (2019)
- [Learning Lane Graph Representations for Motion Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.13732/) (2020)
- [TNT: Target-driveN Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2008.08294/) (2020)
- [Neural Relational Inference for Interacting Systems](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1802.04687/) (2018)
- [AgentFormer: Agent-Aware Transformers for Socio-Temporal Multi-Agent Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.14023/) (2021)
- [DESIRE: Distant Future Prediction in Dynamic Scenes with Interacting Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1704.04394/) (2017)
- [DenseTNT: End-to-end Trajectory Prediction from Dense Goal Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2108.09640/) (2021)
- [CoverNet: Multimodal Behavior Prediction using Trajectory Sets](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.10298/) (2019)
- [MultiPath++: Efficient Information Fusion and Trajectory Aggregation for Behavior Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2111.14973/) (2021)
- [Social-BiGAT: Multimodal Trajectory Forecasting using Bicycle-GAN and Graph Attention Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1907.03395/) (2019)
- [Convolutional Social Pooling for Vehicle Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1805.06771/) (2018)
- [Deep Unsupervised Clustering with Gaussian Mixture Variational Autoencoders](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1611.02648/) (2016)
- [Multimodal Motion Prediction with Stacked Transformers](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.11624/) (2021)
- [Social Attention: Modeling Attention in Human Crowds](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1710.04689/) (2017)
- [Multiple Futures Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1911.00997/) (2019)
- [GOHOME: Graph-Oriented Heatmap Output for future Motion Estimation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2109.01827/) (2021)
- [Latent Variable Sequential Set Transformers For Joint Multi-Agent Motion Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.00563/) (2021)
- [Implicit Latent Variable Model for Scene-Consistent Motion Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2007.12036/) (2020)
- [LaneRCNN: Distributed Representations for Graph-Centric Motion Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2101.06653/) (2021)
- [Multimodal Trajectory Prediction Conditioned on Lane-Graph Traversals](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2106.15004/) (2021)
- [THOMAS: Trajectory Heatmap Output with learned Multi-Agent Sampling](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2110.06607/) (2021)
- [TPCN: Temporal Point Cloud Networks for Motion Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2103.03067/) (2021)
- [Multi-Head Attention for Multi-Modal Joint Vehicle Motion Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/1910.03650/) (2019)
- [Trajectory Forecasts in Unknown Environments Conditioned on Grid-Based Plans](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2001.00735/) (2020)
- [LaPred: Lane-Aware Prediction of Multi-Modal Future Trajectories of Dynamic Agents](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2104.00249/) (2021)

## Built on by (most cited first, 30 of 48)

- [SmartRefine: A Scenario-Adaptive Refinement Framework for Efficient Motion Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.11492/) (2024)
- [Multi-agent Long-term 3D Human Pose Forecasting via Interaction-aware Trajectory Conditioning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.05218/) (2024)
- [Open-sourced Data Ecosystem in Autonomous Driving: the Present and Future](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.03408/) (2023)
- [Adapting to Length Shift: FlexiLength Network for Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.00742/) (2024)
- [T4P: Test-Time Training of Trajectory Prediction via Masked Autoencoder and Actor-specific Token Memory](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2403.10052/) (2024)
- [Sports-Traj: A Unified Trajectory Generation Model for Multi-Agent Movement in Sports](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.17680/) (2024)
- [VisionTrap: Vision-Augmented Trajectory Prediction Guided by Textual Descriptions](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.12345/) (2024)
- [Improving Transferability for Cross-domain Trajectory Prediction via Neural Stochastic Differential Equation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2312.15906/) (2023)
- [SemanticFormer: Holistic and Semantic Traffic Scene Representation for Trajectory Prediction using Knowledge Graphs](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2404.19379/) (2024)
- [Graph-Based Interaction-Aware Multimodal 2D Vehicle Trajectory Prediction using Diffusion Graph Convolutional Networks](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.01981/) (2023)
- [Efficient Motion Prediction: A Lightweight & Accurate Trajectory Prediction Model With Fast Training and Inference Speed](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.16154/) (2024)
- [Multi-modal Knowledge Distillation-based Human Trajectory Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.22201/) (2025)
- [SmartPretrain: Model-Agnostic and Dataset-Agnostic Representation Learning for Motion Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2410.08669/) (2024)
- [Continuous Locomotive Crowd Behavior Generation](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.04756/) (2025)
- [Adversarial Backdoor Attack by Naturalistic Data Poisoning on Trajectory Prediction in Autonomous Driving](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2306.15755/) (2023)
- [RMP: A Random Mask Pretrain Framework for Motion Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2309.08989/) (2023)
- [Mind the map! Accounting for existing map information when estimating online HDMaps from sensor](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.10517/) (2023)
- [FutureNet-LOF: Joint Trajectory Prediction and Lane Occupancy Field Prediction with Future Context Encoding](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2406.14422/) (2024)
- [Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction with Difficulty-Guided Feature Enhancement Network](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2407.18551/) (2024)
- [Hypergraph-based Motion Generation with Multi-modal Interaction Relational Reasoning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.11676/) (2024)
- [Generative Active Learning for Long-tail Trajectory Prediction via Controllable Diffusion Model](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.22615/) (2025)
- [SocialFormer: Social Interaction Modeling with Edge-enhanced Heterogeneous Graph Transformers for Trajectory Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2405.03809/) (2024)
- [Interaction-Merged Motion Planning: Effectively Leveraging Diverse Motion Datasets for Robust Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.04790/) (2025)
- [CASPNet++: Joint Multi-Agent Motion Prediction](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2308.07751/) (2023)
- [Future-Aware Interaction Network For Motion Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2503.06565/) (2025)
- [Learning Through Retrospection: Improving Trajectory Prediction for Automated Driving with Error Feedback](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2504.13785/) (2025)
- [FFINet: Future Feedback Interaction Network for Motion Forecasting](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2311.04512/) (2023)
- [CASPFormer: Trajectory Prediction from BEV Images with Deformable Attention](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2409.17790/) (2024)
- [Generative AI for Autonomous Driving: A Review](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.15863/) (2025)
- [Non-differentiable Reward Optimization for Diffusion-based Autonomous Motion Planning](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2507.12977/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Understanding the interaction between multiple agents is crucial for realistic vehicle trajectory prediction. Existing methods have attempted to infer the interaction from the observed past trajectories of agents using pooling, attention, or graph-based methods, which rely on a deterministic approach. However, these methods can fail under complex road structures, as they cannot predict various interactions that may occur in the future. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that uses lane information to predict a stochastic future relationship among agents. To obtain a coarse future motion of agents, our method first predicts the probability of lane-level waypoint occupancy of vehicles. We then utilize the temporal probability of passing adjacent lanes for each agent pair, assuming that agents passing adjacent lanes will highly interact. We also model the interaction using a probabilistic distribution, which allows for multiple possible future interactions. The distribution is learned from the posterior distribution of interaction obtained from ground truth future trajectories. We validate our method on popular trajectory prediction datasets: nuScenes and Argoverse. The results show that the proposed method brings remarkable performance gain in prediction accuracy, and achieves state-of-the-art performance in long-term prediction benchmark dataset.