# Limited Diffusion of Scientific Knowledge Forecasts Collapse

arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/2304.07468 · HTML: https://mlsanity.com/paper/2304.07468/

## Key facts

- Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026).
- First posted on arXiv 15 Apr 2023.

## Built on by (most cited first, 2 of 2)

- [The Discovery Engine: A Framework for AI-Driven Synthesis and Navigation of Scientific Knowledge Landscapes](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2505.17500/) (2025)
- [Deep versus Broad Technology Search and the Timing of Innovation Impact](https://mlsanity.com/paper/2601.00871/) (2025)

## Abstract (arXiv)

Market bubbles emerge when asset prices are driven unsustainably higher than asset values and shifts in belief burst them. We demonstrate the same phenomenon for biomedical knowledge when promising research receives inflated attention. We predict deflationary events by developing a diffusion index that captures whether research areas have been amplified within social and scientific bubbles or have diffused and become evaluated more broadly. We illustrate our diffusion approach contrasting the trajectories of cardiac stem cell research and cancer immunotherapy. We then trace the diffusion of unique 28,504 subfields in biomedicine comprising nearly 1.9M papers and more than 80M citations and demonstrate that limited diffusion of biomedical knowledge anticipates abrupt decreases in popularity. Our analysis emphasizes that restricted diffusion, implying a socio-epistemic bubble, leads to dramatic collapses in relevance and attention accorded to scientific knowledge.